EMEA Natural Gas Update: Futures Rise Over 2% as Middle East Ceasefire Turns Fragile

European natural gas futures were up on Thursday, rebounding from their five-week low the day before, after continuing Israeli strikes in Lebanon added to the uncertainties surrounding the ceasefire.The front-month Dutch TTF contract was up 2.43% at 46.40 euros ($54.11) per megawatt-hour, while UK NBP futures were up 2.53% to 117.14 pence ($1.56) per therm.The two-week ceasefire agreed upon by the US, Israel, and Iran is facing a point of contention involving Lebanon, which continued to be attacked, which Tehran has called a breach of the truce.On Wednesday, Iran's Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi said in a post on X that the ceasefire terms were "clear and explicit," and included a halt to hostilities between Israel and Lebanon.Meanwhile, in a Truth Social post on Wednesday, US President Donald Trump said that US forces will "remain in place" in Iran until a complete agreement is reached.Trump also warned that if an agreement is not reached within these two weeks, then the US will restart its offensive against Tehran, "bigger, and better, and stronger than anyone has ever seen before."This highlights the fragility of the truce, with lingering uncertainties continuing to keep global energy and equity markets on edge, even as it marked a major de-escalation.Despite Trump's statements, the Strait of Hormuz remained effectively shut for the sixth-week running, with just 11 vessels transiting through it over the past 24 hours, according to the Hormuz Strait Monitor.This is in stark contrast to the typical daily average of 138 vessels moving through the Strait during normal times, according to the UK's Joint Maritime Information Center.According to Daniel Hynes, a senior commodity strategist at ANZ, even with the Straits reopening, the markets will have to sail through "higher prices, inventory drawdowns and demand rationing," as it would take time for major production and export facilities to come online.This comes at a time when European markets are stepping into refilling season, with significantly depleted inventories, at just 28.77%, compared to 35% last year, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe.

-- European natural gas futures were up on Thursday, rebounding from their five-week low the day before, after continuing Israeli strikes in Lebanon added to the uncertainties surrounding the ceasefire.

The front-month Dutch TTF contract was up 2.43% at 46.40 euros ($54.11) per megawatt-hour, while UK NBP futures were up 2.53% to 117.14 pence ($1.56) per therm.

The two-week ceasefire agreed upon by the US, Israel, and Iran is facing a point of contention involving Lebanon, which continued to be attacked, which Tehran has called a breach of the truce.

On Wednesday, Iran's Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi said in a post on X that the ceasefire terms were "clear and explicit," and included a halt to hostilities between Israel and Lebanon.

Meanwhile, in a Truth Social post on Wednesday, US President Donald Trump said that US forces will "remain in place" in Iran until a complete agreement is reached.

Trump also warned that if an agreement is not reached within these two weeks, then the US will restart its offensive against Tehran, "bigger, and better, and stronger than anyone has ever seen before."

This highlights the fragility of the truce, with lingering uncertainties continuing to keep global energy and equity markets on edge, even as it marked a major de-escalation.

Despite Trump's statements, the Strait of Hormuz remained effectively shut for the sixth-week running, with just 11 vessels transiting through it over the past 24 hours, according to the Hormuz Strait Monitor.

This is in stark contrast to the typical daily average of 138 vessels moving through the Strait during normal times, according to the UK's Joint Maritime Information Center.

According to Daniel Hynes, a senior commodity strategist at ANZ, even with the Straits reopening, the markets will have to sail through "higher prices, inventory drawdowns and demand rationing," as it would take time for major production and export facilities to come online.

This comes at a time when European markets are stepping into refilling season, with significantly depleted inventories, at just 28.77%, compared to 35% last year, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe.