-- Transurban Group's (ASX:TCL) average daily traffic (ADT) in March reflected pressure in Melbourne and Brisbane, indicating higher demand elasticity from elevated fuel prices and a softening consumer environment, Jefferies said in a Thursday note.
But traffic growth rates are better in North America and Sydney, and heavy vehicle traffic growth remaining above cars also offers some revenue offset, the equity research firm said.
For March, Jefferies estimates underlying ADT of minus 3.3% in Melbourne, minus 0.3% in Brisbane, a positive 0.7% in Sydney and 8.4% in North America.
The equity research firm adjusted its second-half fiscal 2026 traffic forecasts to reflect fiscal third quarter actuals as well as an updated view on traffic through the fiscal year, saying it expects growth in Melbourne and Brisbane to be more muted than it previously thought.
"Traffic growth in 3Q26 was weaker than expected within our 2H26 growth forecasts," it said. "And while Transurban has inflation protection in pricing, lower traffic coupled with higher interest rates does impact."
Jefferies maintained its hold rating on the company but lowered its price target to AU$13.69 from AU$13.86.
Transurban's shares fell almost 3% in recent Friday trade.