-- Societe Generale in its early Monday economic news summary pointed out:
-- Risk off, Brent rises 7% to US$102/barrel, natural gas adds 8.4% to EUR47.3/MWh, Euro Stoxx futures down 1.4%, DXY bid above 99.0. The United States Navy will start blocking all vessel traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports at 10 a.m. CET on Monday after peace negotiations end without agreement. WSJ: U.S. open to resuming limited military strikes. Iran cites excessive U.S. demands on the Strait of Hormuz and nuclear program.
ECB call change: SocGen forecasts first European Central Bank rate increase in June, second hike in September on higher core inflation.
'Orbanexit': Peter Magyar's Tisza wins supermajority in Hungary's parliament, defeating Prime Minister Viktor Orban. EUR/HUF gaps down, trades through 2023 low to 367.12. Result will unblock 90 billion euros emergency financial and military support package for Ukraine for 2026 and 2027, loan is financed by common European Union debt, adds bear steepening influence for eurozone government bonds.
CFTC foreign exchange positioning: Euro (EUR) flips to net short 0.97% of OI (first since March 2025), yen (JPY) shorts raised to 26.8%, sterling (GBP) shorts upped to 23.1%, Australian dollar (AUD) longs trimmed to 26.8%, Canadian dollar (CAD or loonie) longs reduced to 8.7%, Mexico's peso (MXN) longs steady at 31.4%, Nymex longs dip to 9.9%.
Week ahead: Kevin Warsh Federal Reserve chair confirmation hearing delayed. U.S. producer price, industrial production (IP), Philly Fed business outlook, Fed Beige Book. Eurozone final consumer price index, IP. United Kingdom February gross domestic product. China Q1 GDP. Romania CPI. International Monetary Fund WEO update on Tuesday.
Nikkei -0.7%, EUR 10-year IRS +2.5bps at 3.11%, Brent crude up 7% at US$102/barrel, Gold -0.6% at $4,720/oz.