Financial Wire

EMEA Natural Gas Update: Prices Ease After Weekend Spike, Stay Elevated on Blockade

-- European natural gas prices eased in after-hours trade on Monday after reversing part of Sunday's surge, though benchmarks remained roughly 5% above Friday's close amid ongoing geopolitical risk in and around the Strait of Hormuz.

The front-month Dutch TTF contract rose 6.249% to 46.365 euros ($54.34) per megawatt-hour, while UK NBP futures rose 5.835% to 116.09 British pence ($1.56) per therm.

On Friday, the front-month TTF contract traded near 43.86 euros/MWh on expectations that Saturday's peace talks between the US and Iran would help ease market pressure. When those talks failed, on Sunday, US President Donald Trump issued an order to blockade the Strait, causing prices to surge in pre-market Sunday trade, briefly reaching as high as 51 euros/MWh.

Prices then retreated on Monday as traders took profits and clarification emerged that non-Iranian maritime traffic would not be blocked, easing fears of an immediate full shutdown scenario. Even so, prices stayed well above Friday's closing level.

US forces were set to begin enforcing restrictions on all maritime traffic entering and leaving Iranian ports at 14.00 GMT on Monday, but were not to impede freedom of navigation for vessels transiting the strait to and from non-Iranian ports, Trading Economics said.

Trump also said the US will interdict any ship that has paid a toll to Iran for safe passage through the waterway.

While most Middle Eastern gas exports typically flow to Asia, prolonged disruption in the strait would increase competition among importing regions, particularly as Europe works to replenish storage ahead of the next winter season.

On Monday, Gas Infrastructure Europe reported EU inventories had climbed to 29.36% of capacity but still remained below year-ago levels above 35%.

Liquefied natural gas shipments from the Gulf have been halted for more than a month, with Qatar's largest LNG facility remaining offline since early March after being struck in Iranian attacks. Even after a restart, repairs to the most damaged parts of the Qatari LNG facility are expected to take three to five years to fix, keeping about 17% of the plant's production offline.

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