Financial Wire

US Oil Update: Futures Rally as Blockade of Hormuz Heightens Supply Risks

-- Crude oil futures rallied in midday trading on Monday as the US began a blockade on vessels transiting to and from Iranian ports, stoking fears of energy supply disruptions amid Tehran's threat to target Arabian Gulf ports in retaliation.

Front-month West Texas Intermediate crude futures climbed by 3.78% to $93.02 per barrel, while Brent futures soared 4.23% to $99.24/bbl.

Saxo Bank strategists said the disruption has reinforced concerns about supply, especially across middle distillates, as tight availability continues to underpin diesel and jet fuel markets.

On Monday, the US Central Command began enforcing the Hormuz blockade at 10 a.m. ET, as Trump warned that any vessels attempting to breach the perimeter would be "immediately eliminated".

"The blockade will be enforced impartially against vessels of all nations entering or departing Iranian ports and coastal areas, including all Iranian ports on the Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman," CENTCOM said in a social media post on X, adding that it will not impede freedom of navigation for vessels transiting the Hormuz to and from non-Iranian ports.

Trump ordered the blockade of the strategic waterway on Sunday after weekend peace talks between the US and Iran broke down.

However, Iran pushed back against Trump administration threats, saying the US's blockade of the Strait would be "an act of piracy," as it reiterated plans to permanently control the critical chokepoint even after the conflict, according to media reports.

China urged the international community to step up efforts to promote peace talks between Iran and the US, warning that the current truce remains fragile and must be preserved.

"China hopes the ceasefire will be kept, disputes will be resolved through political and diplomatic means rather than reigniting the flames of war, and conditions will be created for an early return of peace to the Gulf," China's Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Lin Jian said in a social media post.

Meanwhile, three fuel tankers reportedly transited the Strait via routes close to Iran's coastline, despite threats of US blockade. Trump also claimed in a social media post that 34 vessels passed through the Hormuz on Sunday.

The latest data from MarineTraffic showed that two tankers reversed course near the strategic waterway shortly after the start of the US blockade, with one vessel signaling China as its destination.

On the supply front, crude production in the Arabian Gulf plunged in March due to the ongoing Middle East conflict, OPEC said in its monthly report.

Iraq took the biggest hit, with production dropping from 4.2 million barrels per day in February to 1.6 million b/d in March, followed by Kuwait and the UAE, which registered month-over-month drops of 1.4 million b/d and 1.5 million b/d, respectively.

The latest OPEC data showed that Saudi Arabia's production dropped by 2.3 million b/d, from 10.1 million b/d to 7.8 million b/d.

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