-- Britain is expected to have enough gas and electricity supply this summer, despite mounting concerns over falling domestic output and Middle East disruption, according to the National Gas' 2026 Summer Outlook released on Tuesday.
Gas demand during the summer of 2026 will be comparable to that of 2025, with a 6% decline in gas-fired power generation being offset by a 2% increase in residential and commercial consumption, the outlook said.
Total gas supplies are projected at around 25.3 billion cubic meters, exceeding forecasts of 21.2 bcm, with flows from Norway and the UK's Continental Shelf accounting for 86% of the total, even as the latter is expected to see a 6% dip in output compared to the prior year.
The remainder of this supply is expected to come from LNG imports and Britain's flexible gas storage system, together accounting for 9% or 2.7 bcm, and 5% or 1.5 bcm, respectively.
Even with lower demand for gas-fired power in the summer, the report highlighted increasing volatility during this period, which it attributed to the growing role of gas-fired generation "in balancing weather-driven renewable output and variations in electricity demand."
Glenn Bryn-Jacobsen, the director of energy systems and resilience at National Gas, said in the outlook that while the disruption in the Middle East were raising concerns, the operator's forecasts indicate that "the market has the capacity to deliver sufficient supply to meet demand this summer."