Financial Wire

EMEA Natural Gas Update: Futures Slip Nearly 5% After Trump Signals More Talks With Iran

-- European natural gas futures were down nearly 5% on Tuesday, erasing some of the previous session's gains, after US President Donald Trump said that Iran wants to make a deal "very badly," allaying fears of a prolonged disruption in the region.

The front-month Dutch TTF contract dropped 4.60% to 44.28 euros ($52.26) per megawatt-hour, while UK NBP futures dropped 4.90% to 111.07 British pence ($1.49) per therm.

Speaking to reporters in the White House on Monday, Trump said that the "other side" had reached out to him seeking a deal, amid the US naval blockade against Iran.

Trump also claimed that 34 ships had sailed through the Strait of Hormuz, which he said was "the highest number" since the conflict began, in a Truth Social post on Monday.

This, however, falls short of the figures reported by the Hormuz Strait Monitor, with just 2 vessels passing through the crucial waterway over the past 24 hours, as it remained effectively closed for the seventh week running.

US and Iranian negotiators are expected to resume peace talks in Islamabad this week, following the failure of the first round of negotiations, according to a Reuters report, citing Pakistani and Iranian officials.

France and the UK are set to co-host a video conference on Friday, for countries that are set to contribute towards a "purely defensive mission" to secure the Strait of Hormuz, according to the office of the French President, reported by Al Jazeera.

According to Daniel Hynes, a senior commodity strategist at ANZ, "the continued closure of the Strait raises the risk that the recovery of supplies will take much longer," while noting that resumption of output and supplies will be a long and drawn-out process, even if the strait was to reopen right away.

This comes at a time when Europe has begun refilling inventories, with storage levels significantly depleted, at just 29.54% of capacity, compared to 35.35% last year, according to data from Gas Infrastructure Europe.

Weather forecasts are turning increasingly bearish, with above-normal temperatures expected across most of Europe for the summer of 2026, according to Severe Weather EU, which eases gas demand for heating.

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