-- EMEA crude futures rose in after-hours trading on Wednesday as the market weighed the US Navy's blockade of Iranian ports and the Strait of Hormuz against efforts by the US and Iran to start a second round of peace talks to end the Middle East conflict.
Brent crude futures climbed by 1.09% to $95.75 per barrel, while Murban oil futures were up 0.73% to $101.59/bbl.
Soojin Kim, a research analyst at MUFG, said oil stabilized as peace talks loomed despite the ongoing blockade, with the market balancing hopes for renewed US-Iran peace talks against ongoing supply disruptions.
President Trump reportedly said the Middle East conflict is "very close to over", while noting negotiations with Iran could take place "over the next two days" in Islamabad, Pakistan.
Pakistan's Field Marshal Asim Munir, who reportedly mediated the last round of US-Iran talks, also arrived in Tehran on Thursday for a visit aimed at narrowing gaps between the two sides.
Ole R. Hvalbye, commodities analyst at SEB Research, said the market reads the diplomatic developments as a material de-escalation signal, which is naturally pulling the financial crude contracts lower.
The renewed push for US-Iran talks comes amid the US Central Command's ongoing blockade of Iranian ports and the Hormuz. The US Navy said its blockade is now fully in effect, "completely" cutting off Tehran's international sea trade, which powers about 90% of its economy.
"The US blockade on ships entering and exiting Iranian ports, no vessels have made it past US forces," the US Central Command said in a social media post on X, adding that nine vessels had complied with its direction to return toward Iranian ports.
The US-sanctioned Chinese-owned tanker Rich Starry made its way back to the Hormuz on Wednesday after exiting the Arabian Gulf the day before, according to media reports.
Meanwhile, MarineTraffic said on Thursday the Malta-flagged crude tanker Agios Fanourios I became the first crude carrier to transit the Strait since the US blockade came into force.
"Our base case assumes the Strait of Hormuz operates at only 20% of normal until mid-May before full reopening, and that no further major oil or gas infrastructure in the Arabian Gulf is damaged," Hvalbye said.
On the product side, the International Energy Agency said on Tuesday that the Middle East conflict is set to wipe out oil demand growth in 2026, resulting in the first annual decline since the Covid-19 pandemic.
The IEA expects global oil demand to contract by 80,000 per day this year, 730,000 b/d less than the agency's previous projection that consumption would grow by 640,000 b/d.
Fueling bullish sentiment, US crude stockpiles fell by 900,000 barrels to 463.8 mmbbls in the week ended Apr. 10, the Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report on Wednesday.