Financial Wire

US Oil Update: Futures Steady on US Stock Draw, Hormuz Blockade

-- Crude futures largely held steady in midday trading on Wednesday on reports that the US and Iran are considering extending their ceasefire amid the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, while a larger-than-expected drop in US crude inventories lent further price support.

Front-month West Texas Intermediate crude futures eased by 0.58% to $91.81 per barrel, while Brent futures were up 0.90% to $95.64/bbl.

US crude stockpiles fell by 900,000 barrels to 463.8 million bbls in the week ended Apr. 10, the Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report on Wednesday.

Total motor gasoline stockpiles decreased by 6.3 mmbbls from last week to 232.9 mmbbls, and distillate stocks dropped by 3.1 mmbbls to 111.6 mmbbls, the agency said.

On Wednesday, Pakistani army chief Asim Munir arrived in Tehran for talks aimed at easing tensions in the Middle East and arranging a second round of US-Iran peace negotiations, according to media reports.

The two sides are reportedly considering extending their ceasefire, which ends on Tuesday, by another two weeks to allow more time to negotiate a peace agreement.

President Trump reportedly said on Wednesday the Middle East conflict is "very close to over", while noting negotiations with Iran could take place "over the next two days" in Islamabad, Pakistan.

Ole R. Hvalbye, commodities analyst at SEB Research, said the market reads the diplomatic developments as a material de-escalation signal, which is naturally pulling the financial crude contracts lower.

Meanwhile, the US Central Command said its blockade of Hormuz is now fully in effect, "completely" cutting off Tehran's international sea trade, which powers about 90% of its economy.

Saxo Bank strategists said traders are looking beyond the worst-ever supply disruption, including the US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which has prevented Iranian exports from reaching the market.

The US-sanctioned Chinese-owned tanker Rich Starry made its way back to the Hormuz on Wednesday after exiting the Arabian Gulf the day before, according to media reports.

Meanwhile, MarineTraffic said on Thursday the Malta-flagged crude tanker Agios Fanourios I became the first crude carrier to transit the Strait since the US blockade came into force.

Hvalbye said SEB's base case assumes that the Strait of Hormuz "operates at only 20% of normal until mid-May before full reopening, and that no further major oil or gas infrastructure in the Persian Gulf is damaged."

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