-- Virgin Australia Holdings (ASX:VGN) remains in a strong financial and strategic position due to its conservative approach to fuel hedging over fiscal 2026, Jarden said in a note on Wednesday.
The airline flagged an increase of fuel costs for the fiscal 2026 second half of around AU$30 million to AU$40 million. Revenue-per-available-seat-kilometer growth is expected to be around 5% in the second half, and 6% in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026, compared with previous second half guidance of 3% to 4%. Total domestic capacity is now expected to increase 1% in the second half and fall 1% in the fourth quarter.
Jarden forecast a higher fuel cost burden in fiscal 2027 than fiscal 2026, especially the first half of fiscal 2027. It modeled a net earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) impact, after revenue management, of around AU$14 million per quarter in fiscal 2027 from fuel costs exceeding revenue capture.
It lowered its fiscal 2026 EBIT forecasts to AU$751 million, and its fiscal 2027 group EBIT forecast to AU$790 million from AU$817 million.
The investment firm retained its buy rating on Virgin Australia and reduced the price target to AU$3.80 from AU$4.
Virgin Australia's shares soared almost 5% in recent Thursday trade.