-- 周四早盘油价上涨，但仍稳守在每桶100美元以下，原因是市场寄希望于美国和伊朗延长停火协议并重启谈判，以结束中东战争。 5月交割的西德克萨斯中质原油期货价格上涨0.43美元，至每桶91.72美元；6月交割的布伦特原油期货价格上涨0.95美元，至每桶95.88美元。 美国海军封锁了伊朗港口，而伊朗则继续封锁霍尔木兹海峡。然而，美国总统特朗普周三再次表示，他认为冲突即将结束，与此同时，巴基斯坦调解人继续敦促两国恢复谈判。这些言论为结束这场战争带来了一线希望，这场战争导致波斯湾国家每日20%的石油和天然气需求无法得到满足。 供应冲击对亚洲国家的影响最为严重，一些国家已开始实行配给制，同时推高了现货供应的价格，目前油价已接近每桶150美元。 盛宝银行指出：“由于有迹象表明美国和伊朗可能延长停火协议并重启旨在结束这场战争的谈判，油价趋于稳定。这场战争导致波斯湾关键大宗商品的全球供应中断。这引发了严重的供应冲击，其影响仍在全球范围内持续扩大，目前相对平静且低于每桶100美元的期货价格并不能完全反映现货市场的实际情况。”
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US Markets
Homebuilders' Earnings Likely to be Weighed Down by War Fallout, Soft Spring Selling Season, Truist Says
Several key US homebuilders' earnings this year are likely to take a hit, as the economic fallout from the Middle East conflict weighs on an already-soft spring selling season, Truist Securities said Thursday.The brokerage lowered its bottom-line estimates for the upcoming quarter and full year for six homebuilders. These are D.R. Horton (DHI), Meritage Homes (MTH), NVR (NVR), PulteGroup (PHM), Taylor Morrison Homes (TMHC), and Toll Brothers (TOL).Truist also trimmed its price targets for the six stocks, as it factored in inflation and the erosion in consumer confidence amid higher oil prices driven mainly by the US-Israel war with Iran that broke out at the end of February."The timing of this war was very unfortunate," Truist analyst Jonathan Bettenhausen said in a note to clients. "While we think industry expectations for this spring selling season were already calling for a roughly down low-single-digit environment from last year, we find it unlikely that a significant deterioration in the geopolitical environment was factored into those expectations."The brokerage said that while it's not expecting "many beats" among the stocks it covers, its favorite going into the latest quarterly print is Taylor Morrison. That stock likely has "the most bad news priced in," Bettenhausen wrote."We think any optimism on the spring selling season has effectively evaporated, and we have lowered our demand assumptions accordingly for (the first half) quarters, but also for the back half of the year on worse spring (build-to-order) new order demand," the analyst said.With new home sales and new residential construction data for March yet to be released, alternative market indicators such as mortgage reports and Google Trends "do not yield encouraging demand trends, which in our view, confirms the prevailing market sentiment on demand," according to the note.On Wednesday, the National Association of Home Builders and Wells Fargo said US homebuilder confidence sank this month to the lowest since September amid economic uncertainty, as well as increasing building material costs and interest rates.The White House is optimistic about reaching a deal with Iran, noting that a potential second round of talks would likely be held in Pakistan. Over the weekend, US-Iran peace negotiations in Islamabad ended without a deal. Meanwhile, a two-week ceasefire between Washington and Tehran holds.Price: $144.72, Change: $+0.52, Percent Change: +0.36%
$DHI$MTH$NVR$PHM$TMHC$TOL
Research
Research Alert: CFRA Keeps Buy Rating On Shares Of Abbott Laboratories
CFRA, an independent research provider, has providedwith the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:We keep our target at $125, 20.0x our 2027 EPS estimate. This is a discount to ABT's historical forward average despite strategic portfolio enhancement via the Exact Sciences (EXAS) deal and the strong innovation pipeline, in our view. We adjust our 2026 EPS view to $5.56 from $5.76 to include the dilution related to EXAS acquisition, and keep our 2027 EPS view at $6.26. ABT delivered significant pipeline milestones in Q1, highlighted by the earlier-than-planned approval and launch of two PFA catheters (Volt in the U.S. and Duo in Europe), completion of patient enrollment in the Catalyst left atrial appendage device trial, and positive trial results demonstrating Libre's benefits for Type 2 diabetes patients on basal insulin therapy. We also remain bullish on the integration of EXAS, which closed slightly earlier than anticipated in late March. The deal positions ABT as a leader in the ~$60B U.S. cancer screening & precision-oncology diagnostics market, which is one of health care's fastest-growing segments.
$ABT
US Markets
IBM Seen Beating First-Quarter Estimates, Oppenheimer Says
IBM (IBM) will likely exceed Wall Street's estimates for the first quarter and raise its revenue guide amid momentum in the software segment and an earlier completion of the Confluent acquisition, Oppenheimer said in a note Thursday.The brokerage raised IBM's first-quarter revenue estimate to $15.7 billion from $15.6 billion and reduced the earnings per share outlook to $1.70 from $1.77.IBM's software segment is seeing a pricing uplift on renewals of enterprise license agreements, according to the note. Open hybrid cloud technology company RedHat's contract values are trending 10% to 15% higher at renewal.Oppenheimer analysts, including Param Singh, expect IBM to raise its full-year revenue guidance by a percentage point to more than 6% at constant currencies, including a tailwind from an earlier close of the Confluent deal.IBM completed the acquisition of data streaming platform Confluent in March.IBM's software portfolio excluding Confluent, HashiCorp and RedHat is estimated to rise 7% in the calendar year 2026, driven by higher ELA pricing and larger contract sizes, Singh said.The company's consulting business is projected to grow 2.1% for 2026, excluding foreign exchange volatility, compared with consulting competitor Accenture (ACN), which recently guided to full-year 3% to 5% revenue growth, according to the note. IBM may face pressure from the US Department of Homeland Security shutdown that began on Feb. 14.The shutdown resulted from a legislative deadlock between Congress and President Donald Trump over immigration and customs reforms.Oppenheimer revised its price target on IBM's stock to $320 from $380, citing "recent compression in market multiples." The brokerage maintained its outperform rating.Price: $248.40, Change: $+3.60, Percent Change: +1.47%
$IBM