-- TD Economics週二表示:「顯然,市場在諸多不利因素的影響下持續低迷,包括就業市場疲軟、經濟前景不明朗、人口增長放緩以及住房負擔能力緊張。」此前,加拿大3月份房屋銷售表現疲軟,此前已連續四個月下滑。 鑑於這些挑戰,2026年加拿大房地產市場預計將繼續保持低迷。供需失衡將持續對卑詩省和安大略省的房價構成下行壓力。其他地區的房價成長應該會更加強勁,但隨著時間的推移,成長可能會放緩。 TD指出,加拿大3月成屋銷售“基本持平”,季減0.1%。卑詩省、魁北克省和曼尼托巴省的銷售量維持不變,阿爾伯塔省下降(季減5%),而安大略省則成長(季增1.9%)。其他地區方面,薩斯喀徹溫省的銷售量「穩定」成長(季增10%),而大西洋沿岸大部分地區的銷售量則有所下降。 3月份新增房源數量也保持穩定。由於新增房源和銷售量都幾乎沒有變化,3月的銷售與新增房源比率維持在47.8%。該銀行指出:“這遠低於長期平均水平,預示著未來房價將溫和上漲。” 3月平均房價也維持平穩,而作為更「同類比較」指標的MLS房價指數較上季下降0.4%,較去年同期下降4.7%。獨立屋價格較上月下降0.3%,公寓價格較上季下降0.9%。
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US Oil Update: Futures Gain on US-Iran Peace Talks Uncertainty, Hormuz Blockade
Crude oil futures climbed in midday trading on Thursday as the market weighed the prospect of US-Iran peace talks to end the double blockade of the Strait of Hormuz that continues to disrupt energy supplies from the Middle East.Front-month West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose by 3.68% to $94.72 per barrel, while Brent futures advanced 4.86% to $99.51/bbl.ING strategists said the physical market is tightening by the day as oil flows via the Hormuz remain halted.US crude stockpiles fell by 900,000 barrels to 463.8 million bbls in the week ended Apr. 10, the Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report on Wednesday.Total motor gasoline stockpiles decreased by 6.3 mmbbls from last week to 232.9 mmbbls, and distillate stocks dropped by 3.1 mmbbls to 111.6 mmbbls, the agency said."With buyers shifting toward US barrels, the domestic market is set to tighten as long as Middle East disruptions persist, likely prompting a supply response from US producers," ING analysts said, adding that the local drilling activity has barely moved since the start of the Middle East conflict.Meanwhile, President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social that Lebanon and Israel had agreed to a 10-day ceasefire from 5 p.m. ET on Thursday. Iran has been pressing to include a ceasefire in Lebanon in its negotiations with the US, as part of a broader push for a regional truce.However, Iranian officials are skeptical about the US' "good faith and commitment" to fair negotiations, casting doubt on the prospects for a new round of talks despite reports of a possible meeting this weekend, according to Iran's semi-official Tasnim News Agency.Tehran reportedly believes that due to Washington's alleged breach of commitments at the outset of the peace talks, a potential next round of talks is unlikely to yield results, according to media reports.The two sides are reportedly considering returning to Pakistan for further talks as early as the coming weekend. On Wednesday, Pakistani army chief Asim Munir arrived in Tehran for talks to ease tensions in the Middle East and arrange a second round of US-Iran peace negotiations.Ole R. Hvalbye, commodities analyst at SEB Research, said, the situation is fast-moving, but "we maintain our base case" that Brent will average $95/bbl for 2026 and $85/bbl and $80/bbl in 2027 and 2028, respectively.The Middle East conflict has caused unprecedented disruption to global energy markets amid the double blockade of the Hormuz, a strategic waterway that typically carries about 20% of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas flows.ING analysts estimate that about 13 million barrels per day have been disrupted, and the figure could rise further with the US blockade.The US Central Command has imposed a blockade to cut off Iranian traffic, while Tehran keeps the strategic waterway closed to most other ships.Kpler strategists said vessel traffic via the Hormuz has increased from last month's unusually low levels, with crossings rising and activity extending across a broader mix of vessel types and cargoes.
Update: Marsh & McLennan Shares Rise After Q1 Adjusted Earnings, Revenue Beat Consensus
(Updates with recent stock movement in headline and first paragraph.)Marsh & McLennan (MRSH) shares were up 4.7% in afternoon trading on Thursday after the company reported Q1 adjusted net income and revenue that surpassed analysts' consensus.The company reported Q1 adjusted net income of $3.29 per diluted share, up from $3.06 a year earlier.Analysts polled by FactSet expected $3.22.Revenue for the quarter ended March 31 was $7.6 billion, up from $7.06 billion a year earlier.Analysts surveyed by FactSet expected $7.41 billion.Price: $183.14, Change: $+8.24, Percent Change: +4.71%