-- CFRA, an independent research provider, has providedwith the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:
AA reported Q1 2026 adj. EPS of $1.40 vs. $2.15 Y/Y, missing consensus by $0.15, while revenue of $3.19B declined 5.2% Y/Y (-7% Q/Q) and missed estimates by 2.3%. Adj. EBITDA increased 13% sequentially to $595M despite volume headwinds from the Middle East conflict and Cyclone Narelle, as realized aluminum prices improved 12% Q/Q to $4,209 per metric ton. We view results as constructive despite external disruptions, with AA demonstrating strong operational leverage to aluminum pricing and successful San Ciprian smelter restart completion in April. Management maintained full-year 2026 production guidance of 9.7M-9.9M metric tons for alumina and 2.4M-2.6M metric tons for aluminum. For Q2, we expect aluminum segment EBITDA to improve ~$55M from inventory repositioning and San Ciprian benefits, though partially offset by ~$15M alumina headwinds and $35M sequential increase in Section 232 tariff costs. AA's strong $1.4B cash position and $219M debt reduction show disciplined allocation.