-- US box office revenue this year is set to come in higher than previously projected following a better-than-expected first quarter, B. Riley Securities said Friday.
The industry raked in box office proceeds of about $1.74 billion in the first three months of the year, jumping 22% year over year and ahead of the brokerage's $1.59 billion view. The performance reflected a 14% increase in January, a "flattish" February and "healthy" gains in March, which benefited from the commercial success of the Amazon (AMZN) MGM-distributed film "Project Hail Mary," B. Riley said.
Paramount Skydance's (PSKY) "Scream 7," Walt Disney's (DIS) "Hoppers" and Warner Bros. Discovery's (WBD) "Wuthering Heights" also contributed to the first-quarter outperformance, B. Riley analyst Drew Crum said in a note to clients.
The brokerage now estimates domestic box office collections of $9.55 billion for 2026, up from its previous expectations of $9.40 billion, with the outperformance in the first quarter "serving as the key driver to this upward adjustment."
The first-quarter domestic box office provided "some needed confidence following a shaky (second half of 2025), while this momentum has continued into early (second quarter)," Crum said.
B. Riley reiterated its US box office revenue estimate of $2.70 billion for the current three-month period, reflecting an annual increase of 1%. For the third and fourth quarters, the brokerage is expecting proceeds of $2.70 billion and $2.40 billion, respectively.
"Improving box office trends could lead to quarterly beats, upward revisions to estimates, and hence multiple expansion," Crum said. "General optimism for the 2026-2027 slate, further progress on windowing, and encouraging developments regarding labor negotiations for Hollywood guilds, may help sentiment too."
The brokerage raised its price targets on the stocks of AMC Entertainment (AMC) to $2 from $1.50 and on Cinemark (CNK) to $34 from $30, with neutral ratings. It continues to have a buy rating on Imax (IMAX) shares.
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