-- The impact of Indonesia's proposed mining policy reforms will vary among coal miners, mining contractors, and downstream nickel processors, Fitch Ratings said in a recent release.
Coal policy proposals could adversely hit cash flow for miners and contractors, while nickel pricing shifts could weigh on processors, Fitch said.
Proposed export duties would narrow realized margins, while lower production quotas would weigh on volumes and cash flows among upstream producers, Fitch said.
Reduced stripping and overburden removal would create second-order effects for mining contractors, according to the rating agency.
The proposals have already affected activity, with the country's coal export volumes dropping 7% year over year in the first two months of 2026 due to less output and paused spot sales, Fitch said.
Fitch sees an increasing mining-linked risk in the country, with lingering policy uncertainty that could prompt a lower country risk assessment and put negative pressure on miners' credit profiles.