-- 蒙特利尔银行（BMO）表示，加拿大3月份消费者价格指数报告将于美国东部时间周一上午8:30发布，这将是当日最重要的数据，预计将显示整体通胀率大幅上升。 该行指出，由于中东冲突爆发，油价飙升，汽油价格也随之大幅上涨，仅此一项就将使3月份的通胀率上升约0.7个百分点。虽然能源价格似乎已经见顶，但4月份的平均价格可能仍然会更高，尤其是在联邦消费税减免政策尚未于本周一生效的情况下。 BMO还指出，取暖油价格连续第二个月大幅上涨。预计机票价格也将推高整体通胀率。 该行预测，3月份环比通胀率为1.1%，这将是历史上最大的月度涨幅之一，并将年度通胀率推高至2.6%。不幸的是，由于去年碳税减免政策将于下个月不再计入通胀率，通胀率很快就会突破三个百分点。 据蒙特利尔银行（BMO）计算，核心通胀率（CPI 修正值及中位数）预计将持平或略有上升，这可能结束长达五个月的通缩局面。疲软的经济基础继续对国内物价构成下行压力，但本月基数效应的影响略有增强。除非能源价格出现出人意料的快速传导，否则预计核心通胀率将在4月份恢复放缓趋势。 其他核心指标预计在3月份也将加速上涨，剔除税收的CPI同比涨幅将达到2.7%，剔除食品和能源价格（含税）的CPI同比涨幅将达到2.1%。由于油价波动以及贸易/关税前景不明朗，通胀前景仍然高度不确定。 据蒙特利尔银行称，加拿大央行第一季度商业展望调查（BOS）将于周一上午11:30发布，该调查是政策决策的重要参考依据。这份报告很可能是在二月份编制完成的，不过在伊朗战争爆发后的三月份，可能也进行了一些后续调查。 该银行表示，在战争爆发前，经济活动似乎具有韧性，尽管年初受到一些天气因素的影响。关税仍然是主要的不确定因素，因为美国最高法院推翻《国际紧急经济权力法》（IEEPA）关税的决定对加拿大影响甚微，这得益于美墨加协定（USMCA）的豁免条款。总体而言，鉴于地缘政治不确定性依然显著，BMO预计BOS指标可能会小幅上升，但仍将处于负值区间。 尽管整体经济增长持续低于潜在水平，但仍有一些行业表现突出，例如资源（尤其是能源）、国防和人工智能基础设施。这些行业受益于低关税（甚至无关税）以及国内政策的优先性，BMO预测伊朗战争将加剧这些行业间的差异。销售增长预期和投资意向也可能因此出现分歧。 出口多元化的任何迹象都可能预示着这些措施开始奏效，增强经济韧性。 因此，该银行预计产能压力将保持温和，但调查结果也可能因行业而异。鉴于劳动力市场持续疲软，招聘活动和工资增长预期指标可能较为低迷。 通胀预期将高度依赖于调查的时机。战前，通胀指标表现日益稳健，部分指标甚至持续低于目标水平。政策制定者密切关注市场预期将如何应对油价冲击。但该银行补充说，现在就根据此次调查得出最终结论可能为时尚早。
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