-- 蒙特利爾銀行（BMO）表示，加拿大3月份消費者物價指數報告將於美國東部時間週一上午8:30發布，這將是當日最重要的數據，預計將顯示整體通膨率大幅上升。 該行指出，由於中東衝突爆發，油價飆升，汽油價格也隨之大幅上漲，光此一項就將使3月的通膨率上升約0.7個百分點。雖然能源價格似乎已經見頂，但4月份的平均價格可能仍然會更高，尤其是在聯邦消費稅減免政策尚未於本週一生效的情況下。 BMO也指出，取暖油價格連續第二個月大幅上漲。預計機票價格也將推高整體通膨率。 該行預測，3月環比通膨率為1.1%，這將是史上最大的月漲幅之一，並將年度通膨率推高至2.6%。不幸的是，由於去年碳稅減免政策將於下個月不再計入通膨率，通膨率很快就會突破三個百分點。 根據蒙特利爾銀行（BMO）計算，核心通膨率（CPI 修正值及中位數）預計將持平或略有上升，這可能結束長達五個月的通貨緊縮局面。疲軟的經濟基礎繼續對國內物價構成下行壓力，但本月基數效應的影響略有增強。除非能源價格出現出人意料的快速傳導，否則核心通膨率預計將在4月恢復放緩趨勢。 其他核心指標預計在3月也將加速上漲，剔除稅收的CPI年漲幅將達到2.7%，剔除食品和能源價格（含稅）的CPI年漲幅將達到2.1%。由於油價波動以及貿易/關稅前景不明朗，通膨前景仍高度不確定。 據蒙特利爾銀行稱，加拿大央行第一季商業展望調查（BOS）將於週一上午11:30發布，該調查是政策決策的重要參考依據。這份報告很可能是在二月編製完成的，不過在伊朗戰爭爆發後的三月份，可能也進行了一些後續調查。 該銀行表示，在戰爭爆發前，經濟活動似乎具有韌性，儘管年初受到一些天氣因素的影響。關稅仍是主要的不確定因素，因為美國最高法院推翻《國際緊急經濟權力法》（IEEPA）關稅的決定對加拿大影響甚微，這得益於美墨加協定（USMCA）的豁免條款。整體而言，鑑於地緣政治不確定性依然顯著，BMO預期BOS指標可能會小幅上升，但仍將處於負值區間。 儘管整體經濟成長持續低於潛在水平，但仍有一些產業表現突出，例如資源（尤其是能源）、國防和人工智慧基礎設施。這些產業受惠於低關稅（甚至無關稅）以及國內政策的優先性，BMO預測伊朗戰爭將加劇這些產業間的差異。銷售成長預期和投資意願也可能因此出現分歧。 出口多元化的任何跡像都可能預示著這些措施開始奏效，增強經濟韌性。 因此，該銀行預計產能壓力將保持溫和，但調查結果也可能因行業而異。鑑於勞動市場持續疲軟，招募活動和薪資成長預期指標可能較為低迷。 通膨預期將高度依賴調查的時機。戰前，通膨指標表現日益穩健，部分指標甚至持續低於目標水準。政策制定者密切關注市場預期將如何應對油價衝擊。但該銀行補充說，現在就根據這項調查得出最終結論可能為時過早。
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