-- 美國股指下跌,原油期貨上漲,因中東地區正進行高風險的外交斡旋,促使伊朗重返巴基斯坦談判桌,舉行第二輪和平談判。 那斯達克指數下跌0.6%,收24,308.2點;標普500指數下跌0.4%,收在7,100.3點。此前,由於美國總統川普上週表示在當前為期兩週的停火協議於週二結束前達成伊朗和平協議的可能性很大,納斯達克綜合指數一度創下歷史新高。道瓊工業指數下跌0.3%,收在49284.5點。 非必需消費品、通訊服務及科技板塊領跌盤中。能源和原料板塊漲幅居前。 西德州中質原油期貨上漲5.1%,至每桶88.16美元;布蘭特原油期貨上漲5%,至每桶94.91美元。 根據美國有線電視新聞網(CNN)週一援引消息人士報道,副總統萬斯和美國高級官員預計將於週二啟程前往巴基斯坦伊斯蘭堡,為可能舉行的第二輪與伊朗的會談做準備。一位伊朗高級官員週一告訴路透社,伊朗正在考慮和平談判。此前,伊斯蘭堡方面採取措施結束了美國對德黑蘭港口的封鎖,這對於面臨大規模襲擊威脅的伊朗而言,是其重返和平進程的一大障礙。 根據彭博社報道,川普表示,如果在停火結束前未能達成協議,他「極不可能」延長與伊朗為期兩週的停火,並表示霍爾木茲海峽將繼續保持封鎖狀態,直到達成最終協議。美國總統在周一的電話採訪中表示,與伊朗的第二輪會談定於週二開始。
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Crude Flows via Hormuz Shrink, Refinery Margins Tighten Despite Ceasefire, Rystad Says
Global crude markets are tightening further as oil shipments via the Strait of Hormuz continue to fall, deepening a supply shock that traders had hoped was easing after last week's brief pullback in Brent prices, Rystad Energy strategists said in a note Monday."Friday's Brent complex sell-off on Trump's reopening announcement offered some relief. Margins clawed back, and on some North Sea, West African, and Black Sea grades, the numbers briefly looked workable again," Paola Rodriguez-Masiu, chief oil analyst at Rystad, said.Physical crude costs have surged well beyond futures benchmarks, with Dated Brent averaging above $20 per barrel in April and physical differentials plus freight adding another $20 to $ 25, pushing replacement-crude economics into unworkable territory for many refiners.Rystad said some traders interpreted last week's Brent retracement as a sign that the worst of the disruption had passed. However, the underlying physical constraints have not improved.Rodriguez Masiu said the acute phase is not behind us. "Europe needs more product, and the refineries capable of producing it are cutting runs. The rational response at the refinery level would be catastrophic at the system level," she said.Oil shipments via the Hormuz have dropped since the outbreak of the Middle East conflict.Rystad said April is on track for a deeper disruption than March, with Middle East Gulf production averaging 14.3 million b/d, about 3 million b/d below last month and over 13 million b/d short of pre-war levels.The consultancy said shipments at alternative outlets, Yanbu, Fujairah, and Ceyhan, have hit record highs at a combined 6.8 million b/d, but only 4.2 million b/d of that is incremental supply, far short of replacing lost volumes.Flows improved in early April as a dual-corridor opened through Iranian and Omani waters, and Iraqi loadings ticked higher. However, traffic deteriorated again after the Apr. 8 ceasefire, despite Iran's announcement that it would reopen the Strait.With a US naval blockade still restricting ships entering or leaving Iranian ports, Rystad notes that the last remaining flows, largely Iranian crude and condensate, are now drying up.Peace talks are expected to continue ahead of the ceasefire's expiry on Apr. 22, but Rystad said even a swift resolution would not restore supply immediately.The consultancy forecasted that it would take until July for flows to recover to 80-90% of pre-war levels, and another one to two months before those barrels reach refineries as finished products.The tightening has driven the Dated-to-Frontline Brent spread to about $25/bbl, reflecting the extreme premium for barrels available for immediate loading."A market this short will not flatten gently," Rodriguez Masiu said. "It will correct through higher prompt prices, and the longer the refinery margin squeeze runs, the sharper that correction will need to be."
Trump Says US Blockade to Remain Until Deal
US President Donald Trump on Monday reiterated on Truth Social that the US blockade would remain in force until a deal is reached and that Iran was forcing vessels toward the US for oil."The Iranian leadership has forced hundreds of ships toward the United States, mostly Texas, Louisiana, and Alaska, to get their oil," Trump posted.In multiple posts on Truth Social, Trump said that the blockade would not be lifted until there is a deal, claiming that Iran was losing $500 million per day, describing the loss as "unsustainable."Regarding the military effort, Trump said, "things are going very well," and that the US was winning the war "by a lot."He posted that he was facing "no pressure" on Iran talks and said the potential agreement would be "far better" than the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, also known as the Iran nuclear deal, criticizing the prior deal as one of the worst arrangements for US national security.In another post on Truth Social, Trump said that Democrats are attempting to undermine the US position in negotiations with Iran, while insisting he will not rush into an unfavorable agreement."I'm not going to let them rush the United States into making a deal that is not as good as it could have been," Trump said, rejecting claims of urgency.He dismissed media reports and added that talks could conclude "relatively quickly," while maintaining he is focused on securing stronger terms than previous agreements.