-- 美国股指下跌,而原油期货上涨,原因是中东地区正进行高风险的外交斡旋,以促使伊朗重返巴基斯坦谈判桌,举行第二轮和平谈判。 纳斯达克综合指数下跌0.6%,收于24308.2点;标普500指数下跌0.4%,收于7100.3点。此前,由于美国总统特朗普上周表示在当前为期两周的停火协议于周二结束前达成伊朗和平协议的可能性很大,纳斯达克综合指数一度创下历史新高。道琼斯工业平均指数下跌0.3%,收于49284.5点。 非必需消费品、通信服务和科技板块领跌盘中。能源和原材料板块涨幅居前。 西德克萨斯中质原油期货上涨5.1%,至每桶88.16美元;布伦特原油期货上涨5%,至每桶94.91美元。 据美国有线电视新闻网(CNN)周一援引消息人士报道,副总统万斯和美国高级官员预计将于周二启程前往巴基斯坦伊斯兰堡,为可能举行的第二轮与伊朗的会谈做准备。一位伊朗高级官员周一告诉路透社,伊朗正在考虑参加和平谈判。此前,伊斯兰堡方面采取措施结束了美国对德黑兰港口的封锁,这对于面临大规模袭击威胁的伊朗而言,是其重返和平进程的一大障碍。 据彭博社报道,特朗普表示,如果在停火结束前未能达成协议,他“极不可能”延长与伊朗为期两周的停火,并表示霍尔木兹海峡将继续保持封锁状态,直到达成最终协议。美国总统在周一的电话采访中表示,与伊朗的第二轮会谈定于周二开始。
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Crude Flows via Hormuz Shrink, Refinery Margins Tighten Despite Ceasefire, Rystad Says
Global crude markets are tightening further as oil shipments via the Strait of Hormuz continue to fall, deepening a supply shock that traders had hoped was easing after last week's brief pullback in Brent prices, Rystad Energy strategists said in a note Monday."Friday's Brent complex sell-off on Trump's reopening announcement offered some relief. Margins clawed back, and on some North Sea, West African, and Black Sea grades, the numbers briefly looked workable again," Paola Rodriguez-Masiu, chief oil analyst at Rystad, said.Physical crude costs have surged well beyond futures benchmarks, with Dated Brent averaging above $20 per barrel in April and physical differentials plus freight adding another $20 to $ 25, pushing replacement-crude economics into unworkable territory for many refiners.Rystad said some traders interpreted last week's Brent retracement as a sign that the worst of the disruption had passed. However, the underlying physical constraints have not improved.Rodriguez Masiu said the acute phase is not behind us. "Europe needs more product, and the refineries capable of producing it are cutting runs. The rational response at the refinery level would be catastrophic at the system level," she said.Oil shipments via the Hormuz have dropped since the outbreak of the Middle East conflict.Rystad said April is on track for a deeper disruption than March, with Middle East Gulf production averaging 14.3 million b/d, about 3 million b/d below last month and over 13 million b/d short of pre-war levels.The consultancy said shipments at alternative outlets, Yanbu, Fujairah, and Ceyhan, have hit record highs at a combined 6.8 million b/d, but only 4.2 million b/d of that is incremental supply, far short of replacing lost volumes.Flows improved in early April as a dual-corridor opened through Iranian and Omani waters, and Iraqi loadings ticked higher. However, traffic deteriorated again after the Apr. 8 ceasefire, despite Iran's announcement that it would reopen the Strait.With a US naval blockade still restricting ships entering or leaving Iranian ports, Rystad notes that the last remaining flows, largely Iranian crude and condensate, are now drying up.Peace talks are expected to continue ahead of the ceasefire's expiry on Apr. 22, but Rystad said even a swift resolution would not restore supply immediately.The consultancy forecasted that it would take until July for flows to recover to 80-90% of pre-war levels, and another one to two months before those barrels reach refineries as finished products.The tightening has driven the Dated-to-Frontline Brent spread to about $25/bbl, reflecting the extreme premium for barrels available for immediate loading."A market this short will not flatten gently," Rodriguez Masiu said. "It will correct through higher prompt prices, and the longer the refinery margin squeeze runs, the sharper that correction will need to be."
Trump Says US Blockade to Remain Until Deal
US President Donald Trump on Monday reiterated on Truth Social that the US blockade would remain in force until a deal is reached and that Iran was forcing vessels toward the US for oil."The Iranian leadership has forced hundreds of ships toward the United States, mostly Texas, Louisiana, and Alaska, to get their oil," Trump posted.In multiple posts on Truth Social, Trump said that the blockade would not be lifted until there is a deal, claiming that Iran was losing $500 million per day, describing the loss as "unsustainable."Regarding the military effort, Trump said, "things are going very well," and that the US was winning the war "by a lot."He posted that he was facing "no pressure" on Iran talks and said the potential agreement would be "far better" than the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, also known as the Iran nuclear deal, criticizing the prior deal as one of the worst arrangements for US national security.In another post on Truth Social, Trump said that Democrats are attempting to undermine the US position in negotiations with Iran, while insisting he will not rush into an unfavorable agreement."I'm not going to let them rush the United States into making a deal that is not as good as it could have been," Trump said, rejecting claims of urgency.He dismissed media reports and added that talks could conclude "relatively quickly," while maintaining he is focused on securing stronger terms than previous agreements.