Financial Wire

TSX指数は正午時点で27ポイント下落

-- 中東和平の見通しが暗転する中、トロント証券取引所は正午時点で27ポイント下落した。 貴金属価格の下落を受け、鉱業株は0.5%下落と最もパフォーマンスが悪かった。 ヘルスケア株は2%上昇、エネルギー株は0.9%上昇と、最も好調だった。 経済面では、3月のカナダ消費者物価指数(CPI)の発表に注目が集まった。 CIBCは、CPIの総合指数は2.4%で、季節調整前の前月比0.9%増(季節調整後0.5%増)が牽引した。これは市場予想(2.6%)をわずかに下回ったものの、前月の1.8%増から大幅に加速したと指摘した。 「ガソリン価格の上昇により3月のインフレ率が上昇したことは誰もが知っていた。残る疑問は、その上昇幅だけだった」とCIBCは述べた。 「結果として、総合インフレ率の上昇は予想ほど高くなく、コアインフレ率は燃料価格の急騰を除けばインフレ圧力の兆候をほとんど示さなかった」とRBCは付け加えた。「エネルギー価格の上昇がコアインフレ率に転嫁されるのは、特に航空運賃などの分野で、夏季が近づくにつれてより顕著になる可能性がある。しかし、カナダ経済の余剰資金がこれらの指標の急激な再加速を抑制し、カナダ銀行は2026年まで様子見の姿勢を維持できるだろう。」 RBCにとっての結論は、食料品価格や家賃など一部の項目は依然として前年比で大幅に上昇しているものの、3月の報告書は、最近の原油価格の上昇が短期的には総合インフレ率を押し上げる可能性があるものの、より広範なインフレ圧力を再燃させる可能性は低いというRBCの見解を裏付けるものだということである。RBCは、カナダ銀行はインフレ期待を注視していくとしながらも、コア物価上昇率の鈍化により、失業率が依然として高い軟調な経済環境にも引き続き注意を払うことができると付け加えた。 株式市場では、ルパート・リソーシズ(RUP.TO)がアグニコ・イーグル・マインズ(AEM.TO)による買収を発表したことを受け、株価が65%急騰し、過去最高値の11.86ドルを記録した。この買収額はルパート・リソーシズの企業価値を29億ドルと評価するものである。

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Sectors

Sector Update: Energy Stocks Mixed Late Afternoon

Energy stocks were mixed late Monday afternoon with the NYSE Energy Sector Index rising 0.2% and the State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) shedding 0.1%.The Philadelphia Oil Service Sector Index fell 0.8%, and the Dow Jones US Utilities Index fell 0.6%.West Texas Intermediate crude oil jumped 5.9% to $88.79 a barrel, and global benchmark Brent rose 5.3% to $95.19 a barrel. Henry Hub natural gas futures increased 0.3% to $2.68 per 1 million BTU.In corporate news, Devon Energy (DVN) shares rose 1.3% after Tudor Pickering Holt upgraded the stock to buy from hold with a $63 price target.USA Rare Earth (USAR) agreed to acquire Brazilian rare earths miner Serra Verde in a cash-and-stock deal with an equity value of about $2.8 billion. USA Rare Earth shares jumped 13%.Eni (E) and Repsol reached a deal with the Venezuelan government to begin exporting natural gas from the country's Perla field in the Gulf of Venezuela, shipping the fuel in the form of liquefied natural gas from a floating terminal, Bloomberg reported. Separately, Eni made a gas discovery in the Kutei Basin off the coast of Indonesia. Eni shares rose 0.4%.Sable Offshore (SOC) shares climbed 3.4% after it said capital expenditures across its assets are expected to be around $180 million from April through December.

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US Markets

Most Softline Retailers Poised to Meet or Top Quarterly Earnings Views, UBS Says

Most US softline retailers are expected to report upcoming quarterly earnings either in line or above Wall Street's estimates, while consumer spending could rise notably if the Middle East conflict ends soon, UBS Securities said Monday.A survey conducted by the brokerage during the first two weeks of this month showed that consumer spending intentions remained "good," particularly for apparel and footwear despite headwinds from the US-Israel war with Iran that started at the end of February, UBS analysts, including Jay Sole said in a note to clients."We believe the market is overestimating the negative impact of high oil prices on softline company margins," UBS said. "We see most softline companies either meeting or beating (first-quarter) expectations during this upcoming earnings season."The war, which has impacted several Middle East countries, has sent energy prices soaring amid the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the world's most important chokepoint for crude flows.US retail gasoline prices averaged $4.042 per gallon Monday, compared with $3.151 a year ago, according to data from AAA, a travel organization that tracks fuel prices in the country."US consumers' view of the economy has been somewhat impacted (month on month) by the Middle East conflict and rising gas prices," the UBS analysts said Monday. "Yet, the data show potential for a strong pop in US consumer spending if the Middle East conflict ends soon and gas prices return to pre-conflict levels. This is a main reason we remain bullish."On Holding (ONON), Deckers Outdoor (DECK), Gildan Activewear (GIL), Burlington Stores (BURL), Levi Strauss (LEVI), Ralph Lauren (RL), and TJX (TJX) are among the softline stocks that UBS said it likes and rates as buy. The brokerage said it likes these stocks over several big names such as Nike (NKE) and Lululemon Athletica (LULU), according to the note."We believe the market is significantly underestimating the potential for (artificial intelligence) to positively impact softline companies' sales and margins," the analysts said.On Saturday, Iran took back control the Strait of Hormuz after temporarily opening the waterway to commercial vessels Friday. The US and Iran have accused each other of violating a two-week ceasefire announced April 7, leaving the situation in the Middle East in limbo.Price: $37.24, Change: $+0.29, Percent Change: +0.78%

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Sectors

Sector Update: Financial Stocks Mixed Late Afternoon

Financial stocks were mixed in late Monday afternoon trading, with the NYSE Financial Index decreasing 0.1% and the State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF) adding 0.3%.The Philadelphia Housing Index was rising 0.7%, and the State Street Real Estate Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLRE) was up 0.2%.Bitcoin (BTC-USD) was climbing 3.3% to $76,265, and the yield for 10-year US Treasuries was slightly higher at 4.25%.In corporate news, Intercontinental Exchange-backed (ICE) predictions site Polymarket is in talks to raise about $400 million at a valuation of roughly $15 billion, including the new proceeds, The Information reported. Intercontinental Exchange shares were down 0.5%.Sila Realty Trust (SILA) agreed to be acquired and taken private by affiliates of Blue Owl Capital's (OWL) real estate unit in an all-cash deal worth roughly $2.4 billion. Sila shares jumped 19%, and Blue Owl was up 0.5%.Apollo Global Management (APO) has agreed to invest $1.25 billion in convertible preferred equity in McKesson's (MCK) Medical-Surgical Solutions business, acquiring about a 13% minority stake as part of the unit's planned separation, McKesson said Monday. Apollo shares rose nearly 2%.Blackstone-backed (BX) Jersey Mike's Subs said Monday that it has confidentially filed a draft registration statement with the US Securities and Exchange Commission for a proposed initial public offering. Blackstone shares were decreasing 0.2%.

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