Financial Wire

カナダ銀行の企業・消費者調査によると、中東戦争勃発前に景況感は改善傾向にあったとCIBCは述べている。

-- カナダ銀行の第1四半期調査によると、中東戦争勃発前は企業と消費者の景況感は改善傾向にあったものの、その後の聞き取り調査では、この紛争が支出計画に悪影響を与えていることが示唆されたと、CIBCは述べている。 しかし、カナダ銀行の調査結果が月曜日に発表された後、CIBCは、現時点では、この紛争が今年以降のインフレ期待を大幅に高めるには至っていないと指摘した。 ビジネス展望調査(BOS)の公式調査期間は2月5日から25日までだったが、カナダ銀行は3月18日から27日にかけて、イラン戦争への潜在的な影響を考慮して選定した一部の企業に対し、フォローアップの電話調査を実施した。 CIBCによると、調査結果は、少なくとも中東戦争勃発前は、概して企業景況感と期待は前四半期に比べてわずかに改善していたことを示している。設備投資と雇用への期待は改善したが、生産能力の制約や労働力不足の報告は、過去の平均水準に比べて依然として低い水準にとどまっている。 戦争勃発前は将来のインフレ期待は比較的安定しており、その後も長期的な期待はそれほど大きく上昇していません。カナダ銀行(BoC)による追加調査によると、1年後のインフレ期待は3月最終週時点で3.8%に上昇し、2月の3%から上昇しました。 しかし、5年後のインフレ期待は2月の2.8%から3.0%へと「わずかに」上昇したにとどまっています。同行によると、この追加調査の対象となった20社のうち、投入コストの上昇を予想する企業は多かったものの、販売価格の見通しはまちまちでした。 燃料価格の上昇分を価格に転嫁できる契約条項に言及した企業もあった一方で、需要の低迷、消費者の購買意欲の低下、激しい競争など、様々な理由からコスト上昇分を価格に転嫁できるかどうか懸念を示す企業もありました。 カナダ銀行(BoC)が実施した第1四半期のカナダ消費者期待調査によると、ガソリン価格の急騰前は、消費者の支出見通しに対する悲観的な見方はやや緩和しており、インフレ期待は前四半期とほぼ変わらなかった。 しかし、戦争勃発後の3月26日から4月2日にかけて実施されたオンライン追跡調査では、中東紛争の影響で経済への悪影響とインフレ率の上昇を予想する消費者の意識が高まっていることが明らかになった。CIBC(カナダ投資銀行)によると、約4世帯に1世帯が、すでに一部の支出をキャンセルまたは延期していると回答した。

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