-- 加拿大央行第一季度调查显示,在中东战争爆发前,企业和消费者的信心有所改善,但后续调查表明,冲突正在对支出计划产生负面影响,加拿大帝国商业银行(CIBC)表示。 然而,在加拿大央行周一发布调查结果后,该行指出,冲突尚未导致人们对今年以后的通胀预期出现显著上升。 商业展望调查(BOS)的正式调查期为2月5日至25日,但加拿大央行在3月18日至27日期间对部分受伊朗战争影响较大的企业进行了后续电话调查。 CIBC表示,调查结果显示,总体而言,至少在中东战争爆发前,企业信心和预期较上一季度略有改善。尽管有报道称产能限制和劳动力短缺的情况仍低于历史平均水平,但投资和招聘预期有所改善。 战争爆发前,对未来通胀的预期相对稳定,此后长期预期也未出现大幅上升。加拿大央行的后续调查显示,截至3月最后两周,一年期通胀预期已升至3.8%,高于2月份的3%。 然而,五年期通胀预期仅“小幅”上升至3.0%,高于2月份的2.8%。该行补充道,在接受后续调查的20家公司中,普遍预期投入成本上涨,但对销售价格的预期则较为复杂。 一些公司提到合同条款允许将燃油价格上涨转嫁给消费者,而另一些公司则表示担忧,认为由于需求疲软、消费者支出受限以及竞争激烈等多种原因,自身难以将上涨的成本转嫁给消费者。 加拿大央行第一季度消费者预期调查显示,在汽油价格大幅上涨之前,消费者对支出前景的悲观情绪略有缓解,通胀预期与上一季度基本持平。 然而,在战争爆发后(3月26日至4月2日)进行的一项后续在线调查显示,由于中东冲突,消费者预计经济将受到负面影响,通货膨胀也将加剧。加拿大帝国商业银行(CIBC)指出,大约四分之一的家庭表示,他们已经因此取消或推迟了部分领域的支出。
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Sector Update: Financial
Financial stocks were mixed in late Monday afternoon trading, with the NYSE Financial Index decreasing 0.1% and the State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF) adding 0.3%.The Philadelphia Housing Index was rising 0.7%, and the State Street Real Estate Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLRE) was up 0.2%.Bitcoin (BTC-USD) was climbing 3.3% to $76,265, and the yield for 10-year US Treasuries was slightly higher at 4.25%.In corporate news, Intercontinental Exchange-backed (ICE) predictions site Polymarket is in talks to raise about $400 million at a valuation of roughly $15 billion, including the new proceeds, The Information reported. Intercontinental Exchange shares were down 0.3%.
US-Iran Ceasefire Likely to be Extended, Macquarie Says
The US-Iran ceasefire may be extended by up to two weeks, though it will take much longer to hammer out a complete peace agreement, Macquarie Group said in a note on Monday.Iran took back control the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday after opening the waterway to commercial vessels on Friday. The US and Iran have accused each other of violating a two-week ceasefire announced April 7.The US Navy on Sunday seized an Iranian-flagged vessel that tried to move past a naval blockade, President Donald Trump said in a Truth Social post.The US is sending negotiators to Pakistan for a second round of peace talks, though Iran said it doesn't plan to participate in those negotiations. Trump told Bloomberg News Monday he's unlikely to extend the ceasefire and that the Strait of Hormuz would stay blockaded until a deal is reached."At the very least, the current two-week ceasefire may be extended this week for another one or two weeks," Thierry Wizman, global foreign exchange and rates strategist at Macquarie, said. "But a fully-formed peace agreement will take much longer."The peace process is likely to be "long and jagged," based on historical precedents set by other similar deals, Wizman said."We don't expect that this process will be any different, and it may last several weeks, if not months, before the final contours are inked and agreed to," he said.Financial markets were largely stable this morning, suggesting traders continued to bet on the prospect of reaching "a permanent deal within a multi-week timeframe," Wizman said.
Sector Update: Health Care
Health care stocks declined late Monday afternoon, with the NYSE Health Care Index down 0.8% and the State Street Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLV) shedding 1%.The iShares Biotechnology ETF (IBB) decreased 0.4%.In corporate news, Tvardi Therapeutics (TVRD) shares fell 4.1% after Barclays downgraded the company's stock to underweight from equalweight and adjusted the price target to $3 from $4.