-- 加拿大央行第一季調查顯示,在中東戰爭爆發前,企業和消費者的信心有所改善,但後續調查表明,衝突正在對支出計畫產生負面影響,加拿大帝國商業銀行(CIBC)表示。 然而,在加拿大央行週一發布調查結果後,該行指出,衝突尚未導致人們對今年以後的通膨預期出現顯著上升。 商業展望調查(BOS)的正式調查期為2月5日至25日,但加拿大央行在3月18日至27日期間對部分受伊朗戰爭影響較大的企業進行了後續電話調查。 CIBC表示,調查結果顯示,總體而言,至少在中東戰爭爆發前,企業信心和預期較上一季略有改善。儘管有報告稱產能限制和勞動力短缺的情況仍低於歷史平均水平,但投資和招聘預期有所改善。 戰爭爆發前,對未來通膨的預期相對穩定,此後長期預期也未大幅上升。加拿大央行的後續調查顯示,截至3月最後兩週,一年期通膨預期已升至3.8%,高於2月的3%。 然而,五年期通膨預期僅「小幅」上升至3.0%,高於2月份的2.8%。該行補充道,在接受後續調查的20家公司中,普遍預期投入成本上漲,但對銷售價格的預期則較為複雜。 一些公司提到合約條款允許將燃油價格上漲轉嫁給消費者,而另一些公司則表示擔憂,認為由於需求疲軟、消費者支出受限以及競爭激烈等多種原因,自身難以將上漲的成本轉嫁給消費者。 加拿大央行第一季消費者預期調查顯示,在汽油價格大幅上漲之前,消費者對支出前景的悲觀情緒略有緩解,通膨預期與上一季基本持平。 然而,在戰爭爆發後(3月26日至4月2日)進行的後續線上調查顯示,由於中東衝突,消費者預計經濟將受到負面影響,通貨膨脹也將加劇。加拿大帝國商業銀行(CIBC)指出,大約四分之一的家庭表示,他們已經因此取消或延後了部分領域的支出。
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