-- 週一盤後交易中,歐洲天然氣期貨價格漲幅收窄,此前伊朗再次關閉霍爾木茲海峽,引發了人們對全球液化天然氣供應的擔憂。 荷蘭TTF基準天然氣期貨近月合約上漲2.775%,至每兆瓦時39.845歐元(46.95美元);英國NBP天然氣期貨上漲2.286%,至每熱量單位99.33便士(1.34美元)。 根據Trading Economics的數據顯示,早盤歐洲天然氣價格一度飆升超過6%,一度突破每兆瓦時40歐元,亞洲交易時段盤中漲幅高達11%。 此次波動源自於週末中東地區緊張局勢再升級,包括伊朗短暫重新開放霍爾木茲海峽後又再次關閉。此前,美國宣布將繼續對伊朗實施封鎖,並確認扣押了一艘伊朗貨船。 儘管美國總統川普警告可能再次發動空襲,伊朗仍表示不會參加第二輪和平談判。 據報道,近日多艘裝載卡達貨物的液化天然氣運輸船駛近霍爾木茲海峽,但要么被勸返,要么被迫在近海等待。自2月底衝突升級以來,據報導該地區沒有液化天然氣出口,這實際上切斷了全球液化天然氣市場約20%的供應。 儘管地緣政治局勢動盪,歐洲液化天然氣價格漲幅仍受到一定限制。 《華爾街日報》報道稱,歐洲在重建庫存的同時,仍在與亞洲爭奪液化天然氣貨物,但相對疲軟的亞洲需求有助於緩解歐洲供應的部分壓力。 冬季來臨前,庫存重建工作仍在進行中。歐洲天然氣基礎設施協會的數據顯示,歐盟天然氣庫存水準在周末升至總容量的30.20%,仍低於去年同期的36.5%。 大氣氣象學G2的模式顯示,歐洲本週晚些時候可能會出現短暫的寒流,但分析師預計不會出現持續的寒冷天氣。該機構表示,關鍵的大氣驅動因素可能會減弱,然後在5月初恢復,降低持續寒冷天氣的風險。然而,5月下旬天氣模式的紊亂仍可能引發短暫的異常情況,影響區域需求。
Related Articles
Sector Update: Energy Stocks Mixed Late Afternoon
Energy stocks were mixed late Monday afternoon with the NYSE Energy Sector Index rising 0.2% and the State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) shedding 0.1%.The Philadelphia Oil Service Sector Index fell 0.8%, and the Dow Jones US Utilities Index fell 0.6%.West Texas Intermediate crude oil jumped 5.9% to $88.79 a barrel, and global benchmark Brent rose 5.3% to $95.19 a barrel. Henry Hub natural gas futures increased 0.3% to $2.68 per 1 million BTU.In corporate news, Devon Energy (DVN) shares rose 1.3% after Tudor Pickering Holt upgraded the stock to buy from hold with a $63 price target.USA Rare Earth (USAR) agreed to acquire Brazilian rare earths miner Serra Verde in a cash-and-stock deal with an equity value of about $2.8 billion. USA Rare Earth shares jumped 13%.Eni (E) and Repsol reached a deal with the Venezuelan government to begin exporting natural gas from the country's Perla field in the Gulf of Venezuela, shipping the fuel in the form of liquefied natural gas from a floating terminal, Bloomberg reported. Separately, Eni made a gas discovery in the Kutei Basin off the coast of Indonesia. Eni shares rose 0.4%.Sable Offshore (SOC) shares climbed 3.4% after it said capital expenditures across its assets are expected to be around $180 million from April through December.
Most Softline Retailers Poised to Meet or Top Quarterly Earnings Views, UBS Says
Most US softline retailers are expected to report upcoming quarterly earnings either in line or above Wall Street's estimates, while consumer spending could rise notably if the Middle East conflict ends soon, UBS Securities said Monday.A survey conducted by the brokerage during the first two weeks of this month showed that consumer spending intentions remained "good," particularly for apparel and footwear despite headwinds from the US-Israel war with Iran that started at the end of February, UBS analysts, including Jay Sole said in a note to clients."We believe the market is overestimating the negative impact of high oil prices on softline company margins," UBS said. "We see most softline companies either meeting or beating (first-quarter) expectations during this upcoming earnings season."The war, which has impacted several Middle East countries, has sent energy prices soaring amid the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the world's most important chokepoint for crude flows.US retail gasoline prices averaged $4.042 per gallon Monday, compared with $3.151 a year ago, according to data from AAA, a travel organization that tracks fuel prices in the country."US consumers' view of the economy has been somewhat impacted (month on month) by the Middle East conflict and rising gas prices," the UBS analysts said Monday. "Yet, the data show potential for a strong pop in US consumer spending if the Middle East conflict ends soon and gas prices return to pre-conflict levels. This is a main reason we remain bullish."On Holding (ONON), Deckers Outdoor (DECK), Gildan Activewear (GIL), Burlington Stores (BURL), Levi Strauss (LEVI), Ralph Lauren (RL), and TJX (TJX) are among the softline stocks that UBS said it likes and rates as buy. The brokerage said it likes these stocks over several big names such as Nike (NKE) and Lululemon Athletica (LULU), according to the note."We believe the market is significantly underestimating the potential for (artificial intelligence) to positively impact softline companies' sales and margins," the analysts said.On Saturday, Iran took back control the Strait of Hormuz after temporarily opening the waterway to commercial vessels Friday. The US and Iran have accused each other of violating a two-week ceasefire announced April 7, leaving the situation in the Middle East in limbo.Price: $37.24, Change: $+0.29, Percent Change: +0.78%
Sector Update: Financial Stocks Mixed Late Afternoon
Financial stocks were mixed in late Monday afternoon trading, with the NYSE Financial Index decreasing 0.1% and the State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF) adding 0.3%.The Philadelphia Housing Index was rising 0.7%, and the State Street Real Estate Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLRE) was up 0.2%.Bitcoin (BTC-USD) was climbing 3.3% to $76,265, and the yield for 10-year US Treasuries was slightly higher at 4.25%.In corporate news, Intercontinental Exchange-backed (ICE) predictions site Polymarket is in talks to raise about $400 million at a valuation of roughly $15 billion, including the new proceeds, The Information reported. Intercontinental Exchange shares were down 0.5%.Sila Realty Trust (SILA) agreed to be acquired and taken private by affiliates of Blue Owl Capital's (OWL) real estate unit in an all-cash deal worth roughly $2.4 billion. Sila shares jumped 19%, and Blue Owl was up 0.5%.Apollo Global Management (APO) has agreed to invest $1.25 billion in convertible preferred equity in McKesson's (MCK) Medical-Surgical Solutions business, acquiring about a 13% minority stake as part of the unit's planned separation, McKesson said Monday. Apollo shares rose nearly 2%.Blackstone-backed (BX) Jersey Mike's Subs said Monday that it has confidentially filed a draft registration statement with the US Securities and Exchange Commission for a proposed initial public offering. Blackstone shares were decreasing 0.2%.