-- イランをパキスタンでの第2回協議に呼び戻そうとする緊迫した外交努力を受け、米国株式市場の主要指数は下落し、原油先物価格は急騰した。 ナスダック総合指数は0.5%安の24,344.1、S&P500種指数は0.3%安の7,101.5となった。これは、ドナルド・トランプ大統領が火曜日に終了する2週間の停戦前にイランとの和平合意が成立する可能性を示唆したことを受け、先週末に過去最高値を更新した後の動きである。ダウ工業株30種平均は0.1%安の49,378.5となった。 日中は、一般消費財、通信サービス、テクノロジー関連株が下落を主導した。エネルギーと素材関連株は上昇を牽引した。 スコシアバンクの資本市場エコノミクス責任者であるデレク・ホルト氏は月曜日のメモで、新たな取引週の始まりにリスク選好度は「低下傾向にある」と述べた。ホルト氏は、トランプ大統領が金曜日にイランとの合意に向けた進展を「著しく誇張した」ようだと付け加えた。 CNNが月曜日に報じたところによると、トランプ大統領はイランとの停戦は「ワシントン時間水曜日の夜」に終了すると述べ、それまでに合意に至らなければ延長する可能性は「極めて低い」と付け加えた。 CNNによると、JD・バンス副大統領と米政府高官らは、イランとの第2回協議に先立ち、火曜日にパキスタンのイスラマバードに向けて出発する予定だ。イランは和平協議への参加を検討していると、同国の高官が月曜日にロイター通信に語った。これは、イスラマバードがテヘラン港湾に対する米国の封鎖を解除する動きを見せたことを受けたもので、広範な攻撃の脅威にさらされているイランにとって、和平努力への復帰は大きな障害となっていた。 ブルームバーグ通信によると、トランプ大統領は月曜日の電話インタビューで、イランとの第2回協議は火曜日に開始される予定だと述べた。 ウエスト・テキサス・インターミディエイト(WTI)原油先物は5%上昇し88.80ドル、ブレント原油先物は4.8%上昇し95.21ドルとなった。 原油価格の上昇がインフレ懸念を煽り、米国債利回りは軒並み上昇した。10年債利回りは1.8ベーシスポイント上昇して4.26%、2年債利回りは2.5ベーシスポイント上昇して3.73%となった。物価上昇圧力の潜在的なリスクを反映し、金先物は1.2%下落して1オンス4,822.1ドル、銀先物は2.5%下落して1オンス79.78ドルとなった。 企業ニュースでは、ノルウェージャン・クルーズ・ライン(NCLH)の株価が日中4.2%下落し、S&P500指数構成銘柄の中で最も下落率の大きい銘柄の一つとなった。これは中東における地政学的リスクの悪化が背景にある。 ロイター通信は、関係者の話として、メタ・プラットフォームズ(META)が今年予定していた人員削減を5月20日に開始し、その後もさらなる削減が見込まれると報じた。フェイスブックを傘下に持つ同社の株価は、ナスダック市場で2.3%下落し、下落率上位銘柄となった。 情報サイト「The Information」は、関係者2人の話として、アルファベット(GOOG、GOOGL)傘下のグーグルが、人工知能(AI)推論タスクに最適化された2つの新型プロセッサの開発について、マーベル・テクノロジー(MRVL)と交渉中であると報じた。マーベルの株価は、ナスダック市場で4%急騰し、上昇率トップとなった。
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VersaBank Begins Receiving QCAD Deposits Under Stablecorp Deal; Notes Kraken Listing Of C$ Stablecoin
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TSX Closer: Index Rallied Late To Make It 12 Gains In The Last 14 Sessions
The Toronto Stock Exchange rallied late to post a modest gain Monday with investors buoyed by two domestic economic updates, RBC Economics noting business sentiment was "stable" in Canada amid the Iran conflict, while National Bank said Canada's current inflation environment "calls for a bit of patience".The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed up 13.74 to 34,360.03, with sectors mixed after the index was lower for most of the session on some profit taking after a strong recent run up and some nerves as market watchers await an end to the Iran war. Among gainers, Health Care was up 2.85% and Info Tech up near 1.6%. The Battery Metals Index was down near 1.5%.Perhaps in reflecting global investor sentiment, Thierry Wizman, Global FX & Rates Strategist at Macquarie Group, published a note entitled 'Traders haven't given up the prospect of permanent US-Iran deal' in which he said despite the "disturbing" news flow from the weekend, financial market prices were largely stable to start the week. Wizman added: "This means that traders haven't given up on the prospect of reaching a permanent deal within a multiweek timeframe. We believe that this is the 'correct' attitude so long as traders also recognize that the peace process is likely to be long and jagged. As most peace processes are."Edward Jones in its 'Weekly wrap', noted markets have rapidly priced out worst-case risks, with easing oil pressures, stabilizing rates, and resilient earnings helping drive one of the fastest rebounds to new highs on record for the S&P 500. Edward Jones said corporate profits remain the most durable support, in its view, with double-digit TSX and S&P 500 earnings growth expected to continue in the quarters ahead. "While a near-term pause or consolidation is likely, we think a credible path toward de-escalation could see markets revert to earlier year leadership, favouring cyclicals, small- and mid-caps, emerging markets, and a balanced growth value approach," it added.RBC said this morning's Q1 Bank of Canada Business Outlook Survey revealed healthier than expected business sentiment and investment/hiring intentions in February and March amid the Middle East conflict, but concerning signs of business inflation expectations edging higher through March. "Taken together, the results are broadly consistent with our expectations for per-capita domestic demand to slowly improve in 2026, absorbing remaining economic slack. The full impact of high oil prices will take time to play out and to date poses no real urgency for the BoC to intervene," the bank addedRBC's base case assumes declining but still elevated oil prices will have a relatively neutral impact on Canada's economy with limited second-round effects on non-energy consumer prices. It expects the BoC to monitor inflation expectations closely but won't make a move this year.Elsewhere, National Bank said the BoC's Business Outlook Survey, "arguably the most important soft data release in Canada", had signaled improvements in the outlook. It noted the latest survey (2026 Q1, conducted between February 5-25), highlighted an improved outlook on future sales, hiring, and investment intentions prior to the onset of the Mideast conflict, a topic that was discussed in survey follow-up calls.In a separate note, National Bank wrote while inflationary pressures increased here in March on the crisis in the Middle East, they were "generally less pronounced than economists had widely expected", with the bank noting annual inflation rose from 1.8% in February to 2.4% in March, but remained well below the 2.6% forecast by economists. According to National Bank, what surprised economists most in March was the stagnation of prices in the basket excluding food and energy. On a three-month annualized basis, these prices rose by only 0.5%, the slowest pace in two years.As for the measures favored by the Central Bank, National Bank noted they are growing at rates that are "comfortable", at 2.0% and 1.3%, respectively. For reference, the central bank had projected last January that the average of these two measures would be 2.5% (y/y) during the quarter, which is materially higher than what actually occurred (2.3%). "This morning's report reinforces our view that the Central Bank should, for now, overlook the rise in energy prices by keeping rates unchanged. Core inflation remains contained, reflecting an economy with excess supply. We believe that the risk of second-round effects (wage-push inflation) from the surge in energy prices is unlikely. As for interest rates, they seem far from accommodative in the current environment marked by geopolitical uncertainty and trade tensions with Washington. Indeed, the labour market stumbled at the start of the year, and the housing market continues to weaken. All in all, the current environment calls for a bit of patience," National Bank said.Of commodities today, West Texas Intermediate crude oil surged 6.9% after Iran again closed the Strait of Hormuz after the United States refused to end a blockade of country's ports while firing on and seizing an Iranian cargo ship. WTI crude oil for May delivery closed up US$5.76 to settle at US$89.61 per barrel, while June Brent oil was up US$4.74 to US$95.12.But gold traded lower as the dollar rose while hopes for an end to the war on Iran faded after Iran on Friday opened and then closed the Strait of Hormuz, pushing up oil prices and the dollar on worries over higher inflation and interest rates. Gold for May delivery was down US$51.80 to US$4,827.80 per ounce.