-- 周一盘后交易中,欧洲天然气期货价格涨幅收窄,此前伊朗再次关闭霍尔木兹海峡,引发了人们对全球液化天然气供应的担忧。 荷兰TTF基准天然气期货近月合约上涨2.775%,至每兆瓦时39.845欧元(46.95美元);英国NBP天然气期货上涨2.286%,至每热量单位99.33便士(1.34美元)。 据Trading Economics的数据显示,早盘欧洲天然气价格一度飙升超过6%,一度突破每兆瓦时40欧元,亚洲交易时段盘中涨幅高达11%。 此次波动源于周末中东地区紧张局势再度升级,包括伊朗短暂重新开放霍尔木兹海峡后又再次关闭。此前,美国宣布将继续对伊朗实施封锁,并确认扣押了一艘伊朗货船。 尽管美国总统特朗普警告称可能再次发动空袭,伊朗仍表示不会参加第二轮和平谈判。 据报道,近日多艘装载卡塔尔货物的液化天然气运输船驶近霍尔木兹海峡,但要么被劝返,要么被迫在近海等待。自2月底冲突升级以来,据报道该地区没有液化天然气出口,这实际上切断了全球液化天然气市场约20%的供应。 尽管地缘政治局势动荡,欧洲液化天然气价格涨幅仍受到一定限制。《华尔街日报》报道称,欧洲在重建库存的同时,仍在与亚洲争夺液化天然气货物,但相对疲软的亚洲需求有助于缓解欧洲供应的部分压力。 冬季来临前,库存重建工作仍在进行中。欧洲天然气基础设施协会的数据显示,欧盟天然气库存水平在周末升至总容量的30.20%,仍低于去年同期的36.5%。 大气气象学G2的模型显示,欧洲本周晚些时候可能会出现短暂的寒流,但分析师预计不会出现持续的寒冷天气。该机构表示,关键的大气驱动因素可能会减弱,然后在5月初恢复,从而降低持续寒冷天气的风险。然而,5月下旬天气模式的紊乱仍可能引发短暂的异常情况,影响区域需求。
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Sector Update: Energy Stocks Mixed Late Afternoon
Energy stocks were mixed late Monday afternoon with the NYSE Energy Sector Index rising 0.2% and the State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) shedding 0.1%.The Philadelphia Oil Service Sector Index fell 0.8%, and the Dow Jones US Utilities Index fell 0.6%.West Texas Intermediate crude oil jumped 5.9% to $88.79 a barrel, and global benchmark Brent rose 5.3% to $95.19 a barrel. Henry Hub natural gas futures increased 0.3% to $2.68 per 1 million BTU.In corporate news, Devon Energy (DVN) shares rose 1.3% after Tudor Pickering Holt upgraded the stock to buy from hold with a $63 price target.USA Rare Earth (USAR) agreed to acquire Brazilian rare earths miner Serra Verde in a cash-and-stock deal with an equity value of about $2.8 billion. USA Rare Earth shares jumped 13%.Eni (E) and Repsol reached a deal with the Venezuelan government to begin exporting natural gas from the country's Perla field in the Gulf of Venezuela, shipping the fuel in the form of liquefied natural gas from a floating terminal, Bloomberg reported. Separately, Eni made a gas discovery in the Kutei Basin off the coast of Indonesia. Eni shares rose 0.4%.Sable Offshore (SOC) shares climbed 3.4% after it said capital expenditures across its assets are expected to be around $180 million from April through December.
Most Softline Retailers Poised to Meet or Top Quarterly Earnings Views, UBS Says
Most US softline retailers are expected to report upcoming quarterly earnings either in line or above Wall Street's estimates, while consumer spending could rise notably if the Middle East conflict ends soon, UBS Securities said Monday.A survey conducted by the brokerage during the first two weeks of this month showed that consumer spending intentions remained "good," particularly for apparel and footwear despite headwinds from the US-Israel war with Iran that started at the end of February, UBS analysts, including Jay Sole said in a note to clients."We believe the market is overestimating the negative impact of high oil prices on softline company margins," UBS said. "We see most softline companies either meeting or beating (first-quarter) expectations during this upcoming earnings season."The war, which has impacted several Middle East countries, has sent energy prices soaring amid the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the world's most important chokepoint for crude flows.US retail gasoline prices averaged $4.042 per gallon Monday, compared with $3.151 a year ago, according to data from AAA, a travel organization that tracks fuel prices in the country."US consumers' view of the economy has been somewhat impacted (month on month) by the Middle East conflict and rising gas prices," the UBS analysts said Monday. "Yet, the data show potential for a strong pop in US consumer spending if the Middle East conflict ends soon and gas prices return to pre-conflict levels. This is a main reason we remain bullish."On Holding (ONON), Deckers Outdoor (DECK), Gildan Activewear (GIL), Burlington Stores (BURL), Levi Strauss (LEVI), Ralph Lauren (RL), and TJX (TJX) are among the softline stocks that UBS said it likes and rates as buy. The brokerage said it likes these stocks over several big names such as Nike (NKE) and Lululemon Athletica (LULU), according to the note."We believe the market is significantly underestimating the potential for (artificial intelligence) to positively impact softline companies' sales and margins," the analysts said.On Saturday, Iran took back control the Strait of Hormuz after temporarily opening the waterway to commercial vessels Friday. The US and Iran have accused each other of violating a two-week ceasefire announced April 7, leaving the situation in the Middle East in limbo.Price: $37.24, Change: $+0.29, Percent Change: +0.78%
Sector Update: Financial Stocks Mixed Late Afternoon
Financial stocks were mixed in late Monday afternoon trading, with the NYSE Financial Index decreasing 0.1% and the State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF) adding 0.3%.The Philadelphia Housing Index was rising 0.7%, and the State Street Real Estate Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLRE) was up 0.2%.Bitcoin (BTC-USD) was climbing 3.3% to $76,265, and the yield for 10-year US Treasuries was slightly higher at 4.25%.In corporate news, Intercontinental Exchange-backed (ICE) predictions site Polymarket is in talks to raise about $400 million at a valuation of roughly $15 billion, including the new proceeds, The Information reported. Intercontinental Exchange shares were down 0.5%.Sila Realty Trust (SILA) agreed to be acquired and taken private by affiliates of Blue Owl Capital's (OWL) real estate unit in an all-cash deal worth roughly $2.4 billion. Sila shares jumped 19%, and Blue Owl was up 0.5%.Apollo Global Management (APO) has agreed to invest $1.25 billion in convertible preferred equity in McKesson's (MCK) Medical-Surgical Solutions business, acquiring about a 13% minority stake as part of the unit's planned separation, McKesson said Monday. Apollo shares rose nearly 2%.Blackstone-backed (BX) Jersey Mike's Subs said Monday that it has confidentially filed a draft registration statement with the US Securities and Exchange Commission for a proposed initial public offering. Blackstone shares were decreasing 0.2%.