-- Rystad Energy策略师周一在一份报告中指出，随着经由霍尔木兹海峡的石油运输量持续下降，全球原油市场供应进一步收紧，加剧了供应冲击。此前，交易员曾希望上周布伦特原油价格短暂回落后供应冲击有所缓解。 Rystad首席石油分析师Paola Rodriguez-Masiu表示：“特朗普宣布重启经济后，上周五布伦特原油价格出现抛售潮，带来了一些缓解。利润率有所回升，部分北海、西非和黑海原油的利润率一度看起来又可以接受。” 现货原油成本已远超期货基准价格，4月份布伦特原油期货均价超过每桶20美元，加上现货价差和运费，价格又增加了20至25美元，使得许多炼油商难以承受替代原油的成本。 Rystad表示，一些交易员将上周布伦特原油价格的回落解读为供应中断最严重时期已经过去的信号。然而，根本性的物理限制并未得到改善。 罗德里格斯·马西乌表示，危机尚未过去。“欧洲需要更多原油，而有能力生产原油的炼油厂却在减产。炼油厂层面的理性应对措施，在系统层面将造成灾难性后果。”她说道。 自中东冲突爆发以来，经由霍尔木兹海峡的石油运输量有所下降。 雷斯塔德能源咨询公司表示，4月份的石油供应中断情况预计将比3月份更加严重，中东海湾地区的石油日均产量为1430万桶，比上月减少约300万桶，比战前水平低1300多万桶。 该咨询公司表示，延布、富查伊拉和杰伊汉等替代出口的石油运输量已达到创纪录的680万桶/日，但其中新增供应量仅为420万桶/日，远不足以弥补损失的供应量。 4月初，随着伊朗和阿曼水域双通道的开通，原油运输量有所改善，伊拉克原油装载量也有所上升。然而，尽管伊朗宣布将重新开放霍尔木兹海峡，但在4月8日停火后，原油运输量再次恶化。 由于美国海军的封锁仍然限制着船只进出伊朗港口，Rystad指出，剩余的原油运输量（主要是伊朗原油和凝析油）正在枯竭。 预计在4月22日停火协议到期前，和平谈判将继续进行，但Rystad表示，即使迅速达成协议，也无法立即恢复供应。 该咨询公司预测，原油运输量要到7月份才能恢复到战前水平的80%至90%，而这些原油还需要一到两个月的时间才能作为成品油运抵炼厂。 供应紧张导致布伦特原油现货价差达到约25美元/桶，反映出可立即装船的原油价格溢价极高。 “如此短线的市场不会温和地趋于平稳，”罗德里格斯·马西乌说道。“它会通过推高即期价格进行回调，而且炼油利润率压缩持续的时间越长，回调的幅度就越大。”
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