-- 麥格理集團週一在報告中指出,美伊停火協議可能延長至多兩週,但達成全面和平協議仍需更長。 伊朗於上週五重新開放霍爾木茲海峽,允許商船通行,並於上週六重新控制了該海峽。美國和伊朗互相指責對方違反了4月7日宣布的為期兩週的停火協議。 美國總統川普在Truth Social網站上發文稱,美國海軍週日扣押了一艘試圖突破海上封鎖的伊朗船。 美國將派遣談判代表前往巴基斯坦進行第二輪和平談判,但伊朗表示不打算參與談判。川普週一告訴彭博新聞社,他不太可能延長停火協議,霍爾木茲海峽將繼續封鎖,直到達成協議為止。 麥格理銀行全球外匯及利率策略師蒂埃里·維茲曼表示:“至少,目前為期兩週的停火協議本周可能會再延長一到兩週。但達成一項完整的和平協議則需要更長時間。” 維茲曼表示,根據以往類似協議的歷史先例,和平進程很可能「漫長而曲折」。 他說:“我們預計這一進程不會例外,最終協議的框架可能需要數週甚至數月才能敲定。” 維茲曼表示,今天上午金融市場總體穩定,顯示交易員們仍然押注於「在幾週內達成永久性協議」。
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