Financial Wire

US Biofuels Update: Markets Mixed as Soybean Prices Fall, Soybean Oil Rises on Geopolitical Risk

-- Biofuels feedstock futures closed mixed on Monday, as soybean futures dropped while soybean oil rose, both reacting to heightened tensions in the Middle East and the threat of a ceasefire expiring.

The Chicago Board of Trade May soybean futures contract closed 0.13% lower on Friday at $11.65 per bushel, while the CBOT May soybean oil futures contract settled 2.16% higher at 69.63 cents per pound.

On Friday, the May ethanol futures contract on the Nymex ended 0.39% lower at $1.89 per gallon.

Rhett Montgomery, DTN analyst, said that it is unclear whether Iran has agreed to participate in any talks. In agricultural markets, energy influences were reflected in higher futures prices for corn, soybean oil, and canola. Meanwhile, escalation continues to be bearish for soybean futures.

"The soybean market traded mixed to begin the new week, initially pressured by a tense situation in the Middle East as well as reports that China is seeing less soybean imports in 2026-2027," Montgomery stated in a daily note.

He added, "Soybean prices are likely to remain in a tight range, especially ahead of President Trump's visit to China in May, which will shed light on the demand side of the balance sheet looking forward."

On Monday, the US Department of Agriculture Weekly Export Inspection Report showed that soybean inspections totaled 27.5 million bushels for the week ending April 16.

Total inspections for 2025-26 are now at 1.18 billion bushels, down 25% from the previous year. Soybean inspections are running behind USDA's estimated pace, even as USDA's estimate of soybean ending stocks is 20% above the previous five-year average.

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