-- Wedbush Securities on Monday raised the North American box office forecast for 2026, citing strong first-quarter growth and summer releases.
The brokerage expects box office proceeds to rise 13% annually to $9.8 billion this year, up from 10% previously projected. First-quarter collections grew 25% year over year to $1.8 billion.
CinemaCon, a trade show for the motion picture theater industry, was conducted in Las Vegas last week. The event showed strong studio slates and a focus on lengthening theatrical windows, Wedbush said.
"All of the studios came out this year with more confidence than last year," Wedbush analysts, including Alicia Reese, said.
The deal between Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) and Paramount Skydance (PSKY) dominated the event, with Paramount Chief Executive David Ellison promising a 45-day exclusive theatrical window upon deal completion and an output increase to 30 titles per year, Reese said.
Theater operators have been demanding a 45-day minimum, Reuters reported last week. Movies staying in theaters longer drives more favorable economics across theatrical and streaming, according to the Wedbush note.
Comcast's (CMCSA) Universal said it planned to extend the exclusive theatrical window to 45 days by 2027, compared with its current 17-day window that is seen moving to 35 days in 2026, Reese said.
The summer slate, especially in the third quarter, "is shaping up very nicely," Reese said.
Last week, B. Riley Securities raised its 2026 box office projections to $9.55 billion from $9.40 following a better-than-expected first quarter.
Wedbush upgraded its 2027 box office growth estimate to 5% from 4%, at $10.2 billion.
However, if the combined Paramount-Warner Bros. company cuts theatrical output, there could be some downside risk to the 2027 estimate, Reese said.
"That said, our current estimate does not anticipate that the combined studio reaching the company's stated goal of 30 total titles," Reese said.