-- Commerzbank in its "European Sunrise" note of Wednesday highlighted:
Markets: Brent slides to $95/barrel, United States Treasuries bull-steepen with 10-year yields falling 6bps after U.S.-Iran ceasefire. Asian equities and e-minis rally with Stoxx futures up some 5%. The US dollar (USD) sells off, with the euro (EUR) rising close to $1.17.
Fed: Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee is cautious and nervous about the economy. Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson says current policy is well positioned. He adds that the Fed is watching private credit very closely.
U.S.: New York Fed consumer inflation expectations rise 0.4 percentage point to 3.4% for 12-month, stay unchanged at 3% for five-year.
Iran war: President Donald Trump agrees to suspend bombing for two weeks as long as Iran agrees to "complete, immediate, and safe opening of the Strait of Hormuz." Iran accepts two-week ceasefire proposal, says safe passage through Hormuz will be possible via coordination with Iran's armed forces. Israel joins the ceasefire (CNN).
Iran war: President Trump says Iran's 10-point peace plan "is a workable basis on which to negotiate" (WSJ). First round of talks to take place in Islamabad on Friday (Axios). U.S. envoys Steve Wittkoff, Jared Kushner and Vice President JD Vance to attend talks in-person (CNN). Iran and Oman to charge "safe passage" fees to ships of some $2 million per vessel to pay for reconstruction.
Banks: FDIC and OCC issue final rule for eliminating reputation risk from bank examinations.