-- Canadian gross treasury bill issuance is rising to $27 billion this week, or $4 billion higher, in what will be the first auction of the 2026-27 fiscal year, said National Bank of Canada.
Of that, the Bank of Canada will purchase $270 million, or 1% of the tender, noted the bank. There will be $25.3 billion maturing on Wednesday, which technically means the bill stock will rise.
However, there were also cash management bill maturities on Monday and there will be another on Thursday, pointed out National Bank. In total, the Government of Canada (GoC) T-bill stock will move lower by $12 billion week-over-week.
Thanks to the slug of cash management bill supply to end 2025-26, the government finished the fiscal year less than $8 billion off its year-end target, stated the bank. But by the end of this week, outstandings will be back down to $276 billion.
That's below the preliminary 2026-27 target of $291 billion outlined in the fall Debt Management Strategy (DMS). National Bank expects an update to the DMS later this spring and risks are skewed to this target being revised down.
That's because higher oil prices are likely spinning off more revenue -- corporate income tax, added the bank.