-- EMEA crude futures advanced in after-hours trading on Thursday as the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz and Israeli attacks on Lebanon threaten to derail the fragile US-Iran ceasefire.
Brent crude futures rose by 1.70% to $96.53 per barrel, while Murban oil futures were up 2.79% to $100.37/bbl.
ING strategists said in a note Wednesday that the price direction will hinge on whether talks translate into a durable agreement and sustained normalization of flows through Hormuz.
On Wednesday, President Trump said that US military forces will remain deployed in the Middle East until Iran fully complies with the "real agreement," noting that any breach would trigger a military campaign larger than anything seen before.
"All US ships, aircraft, and military personnel...will remain in place in, and around, Iran, until the real agreement reached is fully complied with," Trump said in a social media post on Truth Social.
However, much remained unclear in the ceasefire agreement, with the US and Iran appearing far apart in demands.
Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf said in a statement on X that three clauses of the ceasefire proposal have been violated.
"The deep historical distrust we hold toward the United States stems from its repeated violations of all forms of commitments, a pattern that has regrettably been repeated once again," Ghalibaf said in a statement via a social media post on X.
The Iranian delegation is expected to arrive in the Pakistani capital, Islamabad, on Thursday for talks to resolve the Middle East conflict, which has roiled energy markets. However, Ghalibaf said negotiations make no sense following ceasefire violations.
"Crude prices rebounded following their biggest one-day drop since April 2020, with Brent challenging resistance ahead of $100/bbl," Saxo Bank strategists said in a note on Thursday.
Meanwhile, the Hormuz remains effectively closed on Thursday amid Israel's continued attacks on Lebanon. Iran reportedly told mediators it will limit traffic via the strategic waterway to about 12 vessels per day and impose tolls under the ceasefire.
The head of UAE energy giant Adnoc said access through the Strait was being "restricted, conditioned and controlled".
"The Strait must be open - fully, unconditionally and without restriction," Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, Adnoc's managing director and group CEO, said, adding that transit via the waterway is a right under international law.
The International Maritime Organization forecasts that about 2,000 vessels, including oil and gas tankers, bulk carriers, and cargo ships, are currently stranded in the Arabian Gulf, along with around 20,000 seafarers.