-- The annual inflation rate in Germany accelerated in March 2026, marking its highest level since January 2024, largely driven by soaring energy prices due to the ongoing war in the Middle East.
The German consumer price index climbed to 2.7% in March from 1.9% in February, in line with the provisional estimate, final data from the country's Federal Statistical Office showed Friday. On a monthly basis, consumer prices matched the initial reading of a 1.1% increase, compared with the previous 0.2% uptick.
Energy product prices jumped 7.2% year over year, indicating the first time energy prices increased on an annual basis since December 2023, with motor fuel and heating oil prices surging 20% and 44.4%, respectively, as a result of the war.
On the services front, prices rose 3.2%, while the prices of food and goods were respectively 0.9% and 2.3% higher, aligning with the overall inflation rate. The annual core inflation, which excludes food and energy, stood at 2.5%.
Meanwhile, the annual harmonized inflation rate increased to 2.8% from 2%. Month over month, harmonized consumer prices were 1.2% higher, compared with the previous 0.4% gain. The statistical office confirmed the preliminary readings for both.
Looking ahead, ING expects headline inflation in Germany to further increase, remaining between 3% and 4% for most of 2026.
"All in all, today's German inflation data shows that, for the time being, the new inflation wave stemming from the war in the Middle East is 'only' an energy price shock. Any [European Central Bank] reaction to this new price shock will clearly depend on whether soaring energy prices will find their way into the rest of the economy or not," the research firm said in a March 30 note. "Needless to say that a broadening of inflationary pressures and a de-anchoring of inflation expectations could trigger an ECB rate hike. For now, however - at the risk of using a forbidden word, at least at the ECB - the energy price shock falls under the label of 'transitory'."