-- Europe's refined fuels market is flashing mixed signals with crude stock swings in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp hub, increasingly steering prices and sentiment, Wood Mackenzie analysts said in a note on Friday.
Crude oil inventories in ARA terminals surged sharply toward the end of March, reversing earlier declines, analysts said.
Stocks stood at 46.6 million barrels for the week ending Feb. 27, placing them at four-year seasonal lows by mid-March. However, inventories rebounded by over 8 million barrels in the following weeks, reaching 54.7 mmbbls by month-end, the highest level for the same period in four years.
In contrast, gasoline inventories moved in the opposite direction. After reaching 2.45 mmbbls in the week ending Mar. 6, stocks fell nearly 20% to about 2 mmbbls by the end of the month, marking a four-year seasonal low and pointing to tightening supply in the motor fuels segment.
Middle distillates, including gasoil and jet fuel, showed comparatively modest fluctuations.
Gasoil inventories declined through early March, hitting 3.44 mmbbls in the week ending Mar. 13, before recovering to 3.60 mmbbls by Mar. 27. Jet fuel stocks followed a similar pattern, rising from 860,000 barrels at the end of February to 930,000 barrels four weeks later.
Analysts say part of the divergence across product markets reflects differences in crude slates processed by refineries. Lighter crude grades, such as those produced in the North Sea, typically yield higher volumes of gasoline. However, yields can vary significantly even within the same region.
For instance, crude from Norway's Asgard field can produce about 41% gasoline, compared with less than 36% from the UK's Forties blend.
The contrasting inventory trends underscore the need to closely monitor refinery inputs and regional stock levels, particularly in Europe, where ARA hub dynamics remain a key barometer of broader market conditions.