-- EMEA crude futures rose in after-hours trading on Thursday as the market weighed signs that the US and Iran may extend a ceasefire amid the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz that has roiled global energy markets.
Brent crude futures climbed by 2.46% to $93.52 per barrel, while Murban oil futures were up 0.63% to $101.48/bbl.
Saxo Bank strategists said oil has steadied amid signs that the US and Iran may extend a ceasefire and restart talks aimed at ending a war that has choked global supplies of key Arabian Gulf commodities.
US and Iranian negotiators are reportedly considering returning to Pakistan for further talks as early as the coming weekend. Pakistani army chief Asim Munir arrived in Tehran on Wednesday for talks to ease tensions in the Middle East and arrange a second round of US-Iran peace negotiations.
However, the two sides are reportedly pivoting toward a temporary memorandum to avert renewed hostilities, scaling back ambitions for a comprehensive peace deal after talks in Islamabad ended without a breakthrough.
Though US and Iranian mediators have signaled optimism regarding a de-escalation framework and resumption of talks, deep-seated friction over Iran's nuclear program continues to stall a final resolution.
"The oil market continues to edge lower amid hopes that the US and Iran extend their ceasefire by another 2 weeks, along with a potential resumption in talks to bring an end to the war," ING strategists said in a note on Thursday.
The Middle East conflict has caused unprecedented disruption to global energy markets amid the double blockade of the Hormuz, a strategic waterway that typically carries about 20% of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas flows.
ING analysts said the physical market is tightening by the day as each passing day without a restart of oil flows via the Strait.
The analysts estimate that about 13 million barrels per day have been disrupted, and the figure could rise further with the US blockade.
The US Central Command has imposed a blockade to cut off Iranian traffic, while Tehran keeps the strategic waterway closed to most other ships. Kpler strategists said vessel traffic via the Hormuz has increased from last month's unusually low levels, with crossings rising and activity extending across a broader mix of vessel types and cargoes.
Meanwhile, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that Washington will not renew sanctions waivers for some Iranian and Russian oil. On Wednesday, the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control imposed penalties on a number of individuals, firms and vessels linked to Hossein Shamkhani.