-- US natural gas futures extended earlier declines in after-hours trading on Thursday, pressured by persistently soft supply-demand fundamentals, with prices falling to their lowest levels since late 2024.
The front-month Henry Hub natural gas contract, along with the continuous contract, traded down 1.87% to $2.67 per million British thermal units.
Prices had already dropped sharply during regular trading, tracking weakness in European markets amid reports that Israel is seeking direct negotiations with Lebanon. Additional pressure came from weather forecasts indicating prolonged mild conditions, which reduced heating demand.
According to Commodity Weather Group, cited by Barchart, forecasts shifted warmer, with above-average temperatures expected across the eastern two-thirds of the US through Apr. 23.
"Weather remains the dominant driver, and the next two-week window continues to lean warm enough across the Midwest, South, and East to keep national demand soft, which makes it difficult for prices to hold rallies near $3/MMBtu," Gelber and Associates said in a note Thursday.
Bearish sentiment was reinforced by a larger-than-expected inventory build. The US Energy Information Administration reported that underground gas storage rose by 50 billion cubic feet in the week ended Apr. 3, above analyst expectations of around 40 Bcf.
Total inventories reached 1,911 Bcf, about 89 Bcf higher than a year earlier and 87 Bcf above the five-year average of 1,824 Bcf.
Demand indicators also pointed to softness. Total US gas demand at 70.4 Bcf per day on Thursday, down 9.4% from a year earlier, Barchart reported, citing BNEF data.
However, LNG feedgas flows were largely steady, with NRG Energy estimating volumes at 19.1 Bcf per day, while BNEF data cited by Barchart put flows at around 20 Bcf/d, up 0.5% over the week.
On the supply side, output edged lower. Data cited by Trading Economics showed production at approximately 106.3 Bcf/d, down 0.7 Bcf from the prior day due to reduced output in Arkansas and Louisiana. However, BNEF data indicated production of 110.9 Bcf/d, up 4.3% from a year earlier.