-- Crude oil futures climbed in midday trading on Thursday as the market weighed the prospect of US-Iran peace talks to end the double blockade of the Strait of Hormuz that continues to disrupt energy supplies from the Middle East.
Front-month West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose by 3.68% to $94.72 per barrel, while Brent futures advanced 4.86% to $99.51/bbl.
ING strategists said the physical market is tightening by the day as oil flows via the Hormuz remain halted.
US crude stockpiles fell by 900,000 barrels to 463.8 million bbls in the week ended Apr. 10, the Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report on Wednesday.
Total motor gasoline stockpiles decreased by 6.3 mmbbls from last week to 232.9 mmbbls, and distillate stocks dropped by 3.1 mmbbls to 111.6 mmbbls, the agency said.
"With buyers shifting toward US barrels, the domestic market is set to tighten as long as Middle East disruptions persist, likely prompting a supply response from US producers," ING analysts said, adding that the local drilling activity has barely moved since the start of the Middle East conflict.
Meanwhile, President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social that Lebanon and Israel had agreed to a 10-day ceasefire from 5 p.m. ET on Thursday. Iran has been pressing to include a ceasefire in Lebanon in its negotiations with the US, as part of a broader push for a regional truce.
However, Iranian officials are skeptical about the US' "good faith and commitment" to fair negotiations, casting doubt on the prospects for a new round of talks despite reports of a possible meeting this weekend, according to Iran's semi-official Tasnim News Agency.
Tehran reportedly believes that due to Washington's alleged breach of commitments at the outset of the peace talks, a potential next round of talks is unlikely to yield results, according to media reports.
The two sides are reportedly considering returning to Pakistan for further talks as early as the coming weekend. On Wednesday, Pakistani army chief Asim Munir arrived in Tehran for talks to ease tensions in the Middle East and arrange a second round of US-Iran peace negotiations.
Ole R. Hvalbye, commodities analyst at SEB Research, said, the situation is fast-moving, but "we maintain our base case" that Brent will average $95/bbl for 2026 and $85/bbl and $80/bbl in 2027 and 2028, respectively.
The Middle East conflict has caused unprecedented disruption to global energy markets amid the double blockade of the Hormuz, a strategic waterway that typically carries about 20% of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas flows.
ING analysts estimate that about 13 million barrels per day have been disrupted, and the figure could rise further with the US blockade.
The US Central Command has imposed a blockade to cut off Iranian traffic, while Tehran keeps the strategic waterway closed to most other ships.
Kpler strategists said vessel traffic via the Hormuz has increased from last month's unusually low levels, with crossings rising and activity extending across a broader mix of vessel types and cargoes.