-- Kazakh crude exports via the Black Sea are set to reach about 1.7 million barrels per day in May, nearing record levels as global supply tightens, according to a Bloomberg analysis on Monday.
Shipments of CPC Blend, primarily sourced from Kazakhstan with smaller volumes from Russia, are projected to rise to about 1.7 mmb/d, the analysis added, citing traders.
This would be close to the previous peak of 1.72 mmb/d recorded in September, according to the analysis.
The increase offers some relief to European refiners that have struggled to secure crude following disruptions linked to the effective shutdown of flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
Global supply pressures intensified after the conflict, the US and Iran curtailed Persian Gulf exports, pushing crude prices higher and tightening availability across key markets, the analysis noted.
CPC Blend traded at a record premium of $7.75 per barrel to Dated Brent on Friday, reversing from earlier discounts of $3/bbl to $4/bbl seen before the conflict.
Loadings had earlier dropped below 1 mmb/d in January and February due to drone-related disruptions at Russia's Black Sea port and temporary outages at Kazakhstan's Tengiz field.
Exports rebounded strongly in March, jumping more than 60% to about 1.6 mmb/d as output resumed at the Tengiz field.
April loadings were initially scheduled at about 1.5 million b/d, but actual volumes are expected to come in higher due to cargoes pushed from late March.
Kazakhstan accounts for more than 90% of CPC shipments, while Russian-origin crude has contributed about 100,000 b/d in recent months, according to the analysis.