-- Annual inflation in New Zealand is to expected slow by 0.2 percentage points in the March quarter to 2.9%, slightly higher than the previous forecast of 2.8% but slightly lower than the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) April forecast of 3%, ANZ Research said in a note on Friday.
The first quarter consumer price index data, scheduled to be released on April 21, will capture some initial impacts from the Middle East conflict, but inflationary effects will be more pronounced in the second quarter. If the sharp rise in fuel prices are sustained around current levels, the June quarter consumer price index will record a much larger quarterly rise.
The bank expects the core inflation indicators to remain within the 1% to 3% target band, with the weighted median, 30% trimmed mean, and ex‑food, fuel and energy measures expected to land within a 0.3% band around 2%.
It is reasonable to assume that uncertainty around the medium-term inflation outlook will be the monetary policy committee's main focus in May, ANZ said.