Biofuels Update: Soybean Oil, Palm Oil Post Weekly Losses as Crude Prices Ease
Chicago soybean oil and Malaysian palm oil slipped on Friday, posting weekly losses due to crude oil price corrections following the announcement of a US-Iran ceasefire.The May soybean oil contract on the Chicago Board of Trade edged lower by 0.8% to 67.18 cents per pound in early trade, and was set to decline 2.5% over the week.The May CBOT soybean contract held steady amid prospects of additional Chinese demand, with the Trump-Xi summit in sight. It rose 0.3% to $11.68 per bushel on Friday, and was on track for a 0.4% weekly gain.However, Mark Soderberg of ADM Investor Services warned China's status as a weapon supplier to Iran could complicate negotiations. US President Donald Trump recently issued a 50% tariff threat for any country selling military goods to Iran.Meanwhile, the US Department of Agriculture's latest supply and demand estimates offered little support to the market, with US soybean ending stocks for the 2025/26 season unchanged from March forecast of 350 million bushels.The export outlook decreased by 35 million bushels, but the soybean crush forecast increased by the same volume.The agency also maintained its outlook for soybean oil consumption in biofuels at 14 billion pounds."The overall tone of this report was relatively neutral with limited impact, and US soybean futures continued to trade in a range," price reporting agency MySteel said.In Asia, Malaysian palm oil futures retreated more than 2% on Friday, bringing weekly losses to at least 6%, as industry data showed a month-over-month increase in production and as crude oil prices eased over the week.The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives' May and June crude palm oil contracts closed at 4,500 Malaysian ringgit ($1,135.93) per metric ton and 4,538 ringgit/mt, respectively.Fundamentals were mixed, with domestic output increasing by 7.2% to 1.4 million metric tons in March versus February levels, but with exports jumping 40.7% to 1.6 mmt.The data provided by the Malaysian Palm Oil Board also showed a 16.1% month-over-month drop in inventories to 2.3 mmt.Demand for Malaysian palm oil is expected to increase once Indonesia begins the phased implementation of its 50% palm-based biodiesel program from July 1, to mitigate supply risks caused by geopolitical tensions.According to the timeline released by Indonesia's energy ministry, all biodiesel users must fully adopt the B50 standard by 2028.Prior to the full implementation of the mandate, the government will reportedly allow unsubsidized diesel to have 40% palm oil in the blend in 2027, while keeping subsidized diesel at a 50% blend, according to multiple media outlets.Rising biofuel demand could boost palm oil prices going forward.AmInvestment Bank, as cited by Dow Jones, projects a potential bullish reversal from the current bearish momentum, if futures consistently break the 4,675 ringgit/mt to 4,710 ringgit/mt resistance zone.In the US, the May-dated ethanol futures on the NYMEX extended losses for a third consecutive session on Thursday, slipping 1.28% to about $1.93 per gallon.The USDA's latest report showed that ethanol makers will use 5.6 billion bushels of corn in the 2025/26 marketing year, unchanged from the March outlook.