Financial News

Share of Canada's Exports to The U.S. Is Gradually Trending Lower, Says Scotiabank

The share of Canadian exports bound for the United States is gradually trending lower, averaging 76% in 2024 and 72% last year, and coming in at 66% in February 2026, said Scotiabank.This has been driven by a decline in exports to the United States and increasing exports to other regions, mainly Europe, noted the bank in a note published last week.In February, exports to the U.S. rose 4.4% month over month but were down 10.4% compared with 2024. Exports to other countries rose 10.5% after a weak January and were up 42.4% from 2024, though much of this has been driven by elevated overseas exports of gold. On the import side, the share of Canadian imports from the U.S. was down slightly in February to 59% from 62% in 2024.Canada continues to benefit from a relatively low effective tariff rate on total exports. 3.1% is Scotiabank's latest estimate, based on pre-tariff trade flows, of the increase in tariffs since end 2024, thanks to most of Canada's trade with the U.S. continuing on a tariff-free basis under CUSMA. This is down from 4.5% in February due to the country-specific U.S. IEEPA tariffs being replaced by a 10% global tariff.The reported average actual duties paid on U.S. goods imports from Canada was slightly above 3% for the third month in a row, down from close to 4% six months ago. This could tick lower in March, given the tariff changes in late February. The proportion of Canadian goods imported into the U.S. facing tariffs has settled around 10%, pointed out the bank.The U.S. trade deficit is back close to its pre-tariff level. U.S. trade saw significant volatility early in 2025 in response to the tariffs, before stabilizing later in the year. In February, U.S. exports rose 4.2% and imports increased 4.3%, resulting in an increase in the trade deficit to US$57 billion, down from around US$70 billion in 2024.The U.S. import tariffs continue to create inflationary pressures in that country, with the latest estimate of the cumulative impact of the tariffs on the U.S. consumer price index reaching nearly a full percentage point and clouding the outlook for U.S. interest rate cuts, especially given recent increases in oil prices.Tariffs and uncertainty continue to be elevated and dynamic, according to Scotiabank. Although the replacement of the U.S. IEEPA tariffs with the temporary global tariff of 10% was positive for Canada, the vast majority of Canadian trade has been compliant and, as such, exempt from those tariffs. The sectoral tariffs are by far the most impactful for Canada, and haven't been affected by the recent changes.

German DAX Surges 5% After Middle East Ceasefire Deal

German equities joined a global market rally, with the DAX climbing 5.06% by the end of Wednesday trade, on news of a two-week ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran.The deal, which was secured just two hours before US President Donald Trump's ultimatum against Iran, centers on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz under Iranian military oversight and a halt to US and Israeli strikes as negotiations proceed in Pakistan. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said in a statement that they are in "close coordination" with the US and other partners to negotiate a "lasting end to the war."Oil prices dropped on hopes that the flow of oil and gas through the vital waterway will resume. Danske Bank noted that the news sent Brent crude tumbling toward $92 per barrel of oil, though this price relief depends entirely on the reopening of the strait."For prices to stabilise at lower levels, oil and gas flows through the strait must pick up again, which remains uncertain. The deal looks fragile, particularly as Iran is allowed to charge fees on ships passing through," Danske Bank said. "The war is now in its sixth week, and scepticism remains about whether the ceasefire will hold, as many view it as a trust-building exercise. Significant uncertainties persist, and the oil market and broader markets are likely to stay volatile as they monitor activity from the Gulf."Back in Europe, the contraction in the euro area's construction segment extended for the 47th straight month in March 2026, amid the sharpest downturn in new business since October 2025, due to energy and material inflation linked to the Middle East conflict. According to S&P Global, the S&P Global Eurozone Construction PMI Total Activity Index was down to 44.6 from 46 a month ago.On the flip side, Germany's construction slump eased in March, with the downward trend in output slowing after the previous month was characterized by "particularly severe wintry conditions" that triggered "widespread disruption." Based on the latest S&P Global survey, the Construction PMI Total Activity rose to 48 from 43.7 in February, marking the highest reading in 2026 so far.In corporate news, Heidelberg Materials (HEI.F) gained 9.57%, as BofA Global Research sees positive earnings momentum for the building materials company even as analysts project that "bad weather" in Europe and the US would affect its first-quarter results."Q1 typically accounts for c12-13% of FY EBITDA and c7-8% of FY EBIT for Heidelberg Materials due to seasonality, implying that a strong/weak first quarter typically has limited implications for FY estimates," BofA wrote. "Despite a weak start to the year, we remain confident that Heidelberg Materials can deliver on its FY-26 EBIT guidance of cEUR3.58bn at the mid-point (BofA forecast EUR3.7bn), reflecting normalised volume trends from March and a positive price/costs outlook. This will include energy surcharges implemented now to offset the recent spike in fuel and logistic costs."

UK Shares Surge on US-Iran Ceasefire; Shell Falls

London's FTSE 100 climbed 2.51% on Wednesday's close as British Prime Minister Keir Starmer welcomed the two-week ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran ahead of US President Donald Trump's deadline for a deal.Starmer is traveling to the Gulf on Wednesday to meet with leaders and discuss his government's commitment to de-escalation of the war, as well as efforts to uphold the truce. The ceasefire, mediated by Pakistan, includes the "complete, immediate, and safe opening" of the Strait of Hormuz, Trump said on the Truth Social platform.In economic news, Britain's average house prices fell 0.5% month over month in March, after a 0.3% increase in February, according to data from Halifax. The consensus estimate for the month was a 0.1% gain."The recent slowdown in the housing market reflects the wide uncertainty regarding the conflict in the Middle East. Concerns about higher energy prices have pushed up inflation expectations, which in turn led to a rise in mortgage rates, reducing confidence that interest rates will be cut this year and dampening the initial momentum in the market seen at the start of the year," according to Halifax Head of Mortgages Amanda Bryden."The two-week ceasefire announced this morning gives us hope that the war in Iran will be short-lived, but for now it is causing the UK housing market to slow and some of the UK housebuilders to stumble," RBC Capital Markets said regarding the Halifax data. "Share prices are likely to be up today, but peace in Iran will not alone fix the problems facing the UK housing market."In corporate news, Shell (SHEL.L) dropped 4.68% to become one of the blue-chip index's worst performers after guiding first-quarter adjusted loss in the range of $800 million to $1 billion. The oil and gas giant previously forecast an adjusted loss between $400 million and $600 million."Outside of the Qatari outage, which was known, operational guidance today looks resilient relative to our expectations. From a headline perspective, Shell is expected to report a monster working capital build of $10-15bn, highlighting how unprecedented the current commodity price environment is. Given its strong balance sheet, we expect investors to look through this," RBC said in another note.GSK (GSK.L), up 1.38%, secured approval from China's National Medical Products Administration for Exdensur, or depemokimab, as an add-on treatment with intranasal corticosteroids for chronic rhinosinusitis with nasal polyps in adult patients.

Swiss Market Index Joins European Rally Amid US-Iran Ceasefire Deal

The Swiss Market Index was up 2.53% on Wednesday's close, joining a regional rally in Europe, as investors sighed in relief after the US and Iran reached a conditional two-week ceasefire agreement.In a social media post on Truth Social, President Donald Trump said the US received a "workable" 10-point proposal from Iran that could serve as a basis for negotiations to potentially end the war. The Iranian government said in an official release that it will cease its defensive operations and allow safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz if attacks against the country are halted.Leaders from around the globe expressed support for the ceasefire and diplomatic efforts in achieving an end to the conflict in the Middle East."We strongly encourage quick progress towards a substantive negotiated settlement. This will be crucial to protect the civilian population of Iran and ensure security in the region. It can avert a severe global energy crisis," the leaders of the UK, Canada, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, Spain, the European Commission and the European Council said in a joint statement. "We call upon all sides to implement the ceasefire, including in Lebanon. Our Governments will contribute to ensuring freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz."As of press time, London's Financial Times reported that Iran threatened to withdraw from the deal due to Israel's continued attacks in Lebanon.Back home and on the labor market front, Switzerland's unemployment rate in March edged down to 3.1% from 3.2% in the previous month, government data showed. The number of unemployed people declined by 4,821 month over month to 146,255 in March.Over to corporates, UBS Group (UBSG.SW) and fellow Swiss banks Banque Cantonale Vaudoise (BCVN.SW), Raiffeisen, PostFinance, Sygnum and Zürcher Kantonalbank are working together with Swiss Stablecoin AG for a new joint initiative to test potential use cases for a local currency stablecoin in Switzerland. A sandbox for a Swiss franc stablecoin is set to be launched in 2026 as part of the initiative, which is aimed at supporting the development of a local digital money ecosystem, among other objectives. UBS shares gained 3.98% at closing, while those of Banque Cantonale Vaudoise were down 0.77%.Meanwhile, Zurich Insurance Group (ZURN.SW) shareholders approved a dividend of 30 francs per share for full-year 2025 at its annual general meeting, to be paid out April 14, 2026. The Swiss insurer paid 28 francs per share a year ago. The stock closed the session 0.74% higher.

UBS Updates Its Canada Macroeconomic Forecasts Amid High Oil Prices

UBS said it is taking on board the latest moves in oil prices into its Canadian inflation projections with the latest path implied by oil futures, with Brent reaching US$118 per barrel in the May contract before settling at around US$78/barrel by the end of the year and US$73/barrel by end 2027.With this, the bank now expects annual headline inflation of 2.9% this year and 2.4% in 2027. UBS estimates a strong 1.3% non-seasonally adjusted rise in headline inflation in March, carrying the year-over-year rate one percentage point higher to 2.8% in March.UBS predicts headline inflation will peak at 3.4% year over year in April before moderating from there.In the bank's growth projections, it expects a stronger pace of exports, but marked down business fixed investment and consumption.Overall, the bank's annual projections are little changed, with annual growth of 1.6% this year and 1.7% in 2027.The latest monthly gross domestic product data suggests an "okay" start to the year, with monthly GDP up 0.1% in January, a little better than the flat print in the flash estimate, and the flash estimate for February was a 0.2% month-over-month rise.After a strong broad-based decline in employment in February, UBS forecasts a "mild" 16,000 rise in employment in March, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 6.7% in the employment data to be published on Friday.

European Stocks Rise Sharply in Wednesday Trading After Two-Week Ceasefire of Middle East War

The European stock markets were surging higher in Wednesday trading after the US announced a two-week ceasefire in its war against Iran. The announcement sent energy stocks sharply lower, while mining and transportation sector stocks climbed significantly higher.The Stoxx Europe was rising 3.6%, Germany's DAX was advancing 4.8%, the FTSE 100 was climbing 2.5% higher, France's CAC was increasing 4.3%, and the Swiss Market Index was up 2.5%.And in corporate news, Telefonica said Tuesday its Hispanoamerica unit agreed to sell its entire stake in its Mexican operations to Melisa Acquisition for $450 million, subject to adjustments.The regional operations are comprised of the Pegaso PCS and Celular de Telefonia units, and the purchasing entity is a consortium led by OXIO and Newfoundland Capital Management, the company said.Shares of the Spanish telecommunications operator were up 0.6% in Madrid.GSK said Wednesday the Chinese National Medical Products Administration approved its biologic medication Exdensur as a supplemental therapy for adult patients suffering from chronic rhinosinusitis with nasal polyps.The medication is the first ultra-long-acting biologic approved for the condition in the country and follows a recent domestic authorization for severe asthma, the company said.Shares of the British pharmaceutical company are gaining 1.2% in London.Shell said Wednesday it expects Q1 upstream production of 1.76 million to 1.86 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, compared with 1.89 million in Q4.Integrated gas production for the quarter is expected at 880,000 to 920,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, compared with 948,000 barrels in the prior quarter, according to the company.Shares of Shell were falling 5% in London.Stellantis is in advanced talks to co-develop an Opel-branded electric sport utility vehicle with its Chinese partner Leapmotor to cut costs and speed up EV development, Reuters reported Wednesday, citing sources familiar with the matter.The SUV would be made at Stellantis' Zaragoza plant in Spain using Leapmotor's technology, while Opel would handle the exterior design, according to the report.Shares of the automaker surged 6.1% in Paris.

Russia Earnings from Oil Rebound as Flows Recover, Bloomberg Analysis Says

Russia's oil export value climbed to about $2.1 billion per week, the highest since June 2022, driven by higher prices and recovering shipment volumes, according to a Bloomberg analysis on Wednesday.Global crude benchmarks surged amid Middle East tensions and restricted flows through the Strait of Hormuz, boosting demand for Russian barrels as refiners sought alternative supplies, the analysis said.The disruption stranded over 12 million barrels per day of Middle Eastern exports, speeding up the release of Russian oil from floating storage as cargoes were redirected to buyers, according to the analysis.Despite stronger prices, Moscow's revenue gains were partly limited by Ukrainian drone strikes that damaged key export infrastructure, including the Baltic port of Ust-Luga, the analysis said.Loadings from Ust-Luga remained halted after repeated attacks, while shipments from Primorsk recovered, helping offset some losses in Russia's overall export flows.Russia's weekly crude shipments regained only a fraction of earlier declines, holding under 3 million b/d for a second straight week to April 5, while the four-week average inched up 20,000 b/d to 3.35 million barrels, the analysis said.At the same time, previously stranded cargoes were delivered, sharply reducing floating storage by about 26 million barrels over two weeks to April 5, with volumes dropping to 105 million barrels from around 140 million in mid-January.India lifted Russian crude imports to 1.9 million b/d last month, while China-bound shipments eased to around 1.9 million b/d from 2.1 million b/d in February, the analysis said.A total of 28 tankers loaded about 20.88 million barrels of Russian crude in the week to April 5, up from 16.62 million barrels on 22 vessels the previous week.Daily shipments averaged 2.98 million b/d, rising by about 610,000 barrels, driven by a rebound at Primorsk and Kozmino, while Ust-Luga remained offline; flows were also influenced by weather, sanctions, and included two Kebco cargoes.Urals crude export prices climbed about $12.50 to $85.73/bbl in the Baltic and rose similarly to $84.07/bbl in the Black Sea, while ESPO crude gained $7.90 to $79.00/bbl, averaging $92.11/bbl.Delivered prices into India also increased by $16.10 to $113.76/bbl, the analysis said, citing pricing data from Argus Media.Weekly export revenues averaged about $2.1 billion in the seven days to April 5, up $630 million, as Urals jumped $18.50 week-over-week to $106.05/bbl, a 13-year high, while ESPO rose $2.60, the analysis said.Flows to Asian buyers, including undisclosed destinations, edged up to about 3.09 million b/d, even as shipments to China and India declined, with a rising share of cargoes still in transit without final destinations, according to the analysis.Flows to China averaged about 1.07 million b/d in the four weeks to April 5, down from 1.2 million b/d previously, while India-bound shipments fell to 680,000 b/d from 750,000 b/d, the analysis said.Unallocated cargoes rose to about 1.26 million b/d, including roughly 1.13 million b/d routed via Port Said, Suez, or without clear Pacific destinations, plus 130,000 b/d with no signals, the analysis said.Shipments to Turkey increased to around 210,000 b/d from about 160,000 b/d in the prior week, reflecting shifting trade flows, according to the analysis.Flows to Syria dropped to zero from about 130,000 b/d in mid-January, with cargo tracking limited as tankers often go dark near Crete before reaching Baniyas, according to the analysis.

NNPC Begins Export of New Cawthorne Crude Grade

The Nigerian National Petroleum Company said Wednesday that it has started exports of a new crude grade, Cawthorne.Cawthorne, the latest addition to Nigeria's crude slate, has an API gravity of 36.4, classifying it as a light, sweet grade comparable with Bonny Light grade, which has an API gravity value of 34.9, according to data from TotalEnergies (TTE).NNPC said the first shipment of the new grade was loaded on Apr. 5 onto the MT Eburones for delivery to the Netherlands and onward distribution to international markets. The maiden cargo of 950,000 barrels was exported via the Cawthorne floating storage and offloading vessel, located offshore Bonny in Rivers State. The facility is designed to improve crude evacuation from Oil Mining Lease 18.The company said the introduction of the Cawthorne grade aligns with a federal target to increase crude production to three million barrels per day and gas output to 12 billion cubic feet per day by 2030.The new grade follows recent additions such as Nembe and Utapate crude grades.Price: $89.70, Change: $-1.67, Percent Change: -1.83%

Exxon Mobil Flags First-Quarter Output Hit Due to Middle East Conflict

Exxon Mobil (XOM) expects its global oil-equivalent output to take a hit in the first quarter due to production disruptions caused by the Middle East conflict.Production at certain upstream assets in Qatar and the United Arab Emirates was impacted beginning in March, according to an Exxon regulatory filing. The attacks included those on two liquefied natural gas trains in Qatar.These disruptions could lower Exxon's global oil-equivalent output by roughly 6% on a sequential basis in the first quarter, the company said Wednesday."Public reports indicate the (train) damage will take a prolonged period to repair," Exxon said. "Pending an on-site evaluation, we are unable to comment on the length of time before the two trains return to normal operations."The Middle East assets represent some 20% of the company's oil-equivalent production across the world, but a smaller percentage of upstream earnings, according to the filing.Including the impact of reduced crude availability at its Asia Pacific operations, Exxon said it expects a 2% sequential drop in its global energy products throughput in the first quarter.Shares of the US oil giant were down 5.8% in Wednesday trade. Smaller rival Chevron's (CVX) stock fell 5.6%. Crude oil prices tumbled following a two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran.Exxon expects a surge in energy prices following the 39-day long US-Israel war with Tehran to boost its first-quarter upstream earnings. The company is scheduled to release its first-quarter results on May 1."First-quarter earnings per share are expected to be higher than the fourth quarter of 2025, excluding unfavorable timing effects that will reverse over time," the company said.Exxon said that it normally sees negative timing effects during times of rising prices.The company said timing effects could result in a $3.3 billion to $4.1 billion hit to first-quarter energy products earnings related to transactions for crude and finished products.Price: $154.13, Change: $-9.78, Percent Change: -5.97%

With Two of Three Byelections Considered 'Safe' Wins For Liberals Next Week, and With Latest Conservative MP Defection, PM Carney May Be Set To Head Majority Govt

This Comes Ahead of Three Byelections; Liberals Were Two Seats Shy of a Majority Heading In To Those Byelections

MP Marilyn Gladu Becomes Latest Conservative MP In About a Year To Cross the Floor and Join Federal Govt of PM Mark Carney's Liberal Party

Canada's Office Market Is Getting Off The Floor, Says BMO

One area of the Canadian real estate market that is tightening up is maybe the last place many would have expected said Bank of Montreal (BMO), it's the office market.Office vacancy rates nationally dipped for a third-straight quarter in Q1, according to CBRE, although still very elevated at above 17%, stated BMO.There is a clear improvement starting in the Greater Toronto Area with limited new supply and some net absorption with more return-to-office activity, pointed out the bank.Contrast that to areas like industrial, which was heavily supplied in recent years, or multifamily, which was heavily supplied and demand is also crumbling with population growth, it added.This isn't to say this is a strong office market yet, but it's one that is getting up off the floor, especially in prime areas, according to BMO.

European Equities Traded in the US as American Depositary Receipts Surge in Wednesday Trading

European equities traded in the US as American depositary receipts were trending sharply higher late Wednesday morning, advancing 3.16% to 1,808.76 on the S&P Europe Select ADR Index.From continental Europe, the gainers were led by lender Banco Santander (SAN) and biotech firm Evaxion (EVAX), which climbed 7.4% and 7.2%, respectively. They were followed by lenders Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBVA) and ING Group (ING), which advanced 6.6% and 6%, respectively.The decliners from continental Europe were led by petroleum refiner Equinor (EQNR) and oil and gas company Eni (E), which fell 9.2% and 5.5%, respectively. They were followed by accommodations booking company trivago (TRVG), which was down 3.2%.The gainers from the UK were led by cruise line operator Carnival (CUK) and lender Barclays (BCS), which rose 13% and 8.2%, respectively. They were followed by lender Lloyds Banking Group (LYG) and hospitality company InterContinental Hotels Group (IHG), which were up 8.1% and 7.7%, respectively.The decliners from the UK and Ireland were led by biopharmaceutical company NuCana (NCNA) and oil and gas company BP (BP), which dropped 4.9% and 4.5%, respectively. They were followed by biopharmaceutical company Akari Therapeutics (AKTX) and oil and gas company Shell (SHEL), which lost 4.2% and 3.4%, respectively.

Market Chatter: PM Carney Responds to Canadians Facing Around $2/L at Gas Pumps

Prime Minister Mark Carney says the federal government is aware of the high gas prices Canadians are facing, and amid uncertainty over how long the war in Iran may persist, he's "looking at" ways to help, CTV News is reporting Wednesday."What can we do to help cushion the blow for Canadians?" Carney asked at an event in Brampton, Ont. "That's something we're looking at."Carney made this comment in response to a reporter asking what he'd say to Canadians facing around $2 per litre at the pumps.The prime minister said he knows Canadians are asking themselves every day when they go to fill their tanks or heat their homes, why they feel as if they're bearing the costs of the Iran-U.S. war. Carney said "the short answer is because there's a global market.""Those countries that have lots of oil and gas see their prices go up alongside with those who don't have that oil and gas. It's the same shifts up in prices in the United States as well," Carney continued.Carney indicating that the Liberals are considering ways to offer consumers relief, comes on the heels of Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre calling for gas taxes to be scrapped for rest of year. It also comes ahead of the spring economic update expected in the coming weeks.The prime minister offered no additional detail on what help his government may have in mind, or be considering, nor the timeline for when any measures may come into effect.Today Poilievre followed up on his call last week, by publishing a formal letter he sent to Carney. In it, he asks the PM to suspend the federal fuel excise tax and the GST on gas and diesel, and use the "massive windfall" the federal government is experiencing due to fuel costs, to fund it.(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally, and/or from other media sources. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)

Asian Equities Traded in the US as American Depositary Receipts Soar in Wednesday Trading

Asian equities traded in the US as American depositary receipts were surging Wednesday morning, jumping 5.13% to 2,774.65 on the S&P Asia 50 ADR Index.From North Asia, the gainers were led by travel company Tuniu (TOUR), which surged 21%, followed by consumer lender Eason Technology (DXF), brand platform 36Kr (KRKR), and utilities company Korea Electric Power (KEP), which climbed 11% each.The only decliners from North Asia were fintech firms Maase (MAAS) and AMTD Digital (HKD), which were off 0.4% and 0.2%, respectively.From South Asia, the gainers were led by tech conglomerate Sea (SE) and IT firm Sify Technologies (SIFY), which rose 7.3% and 7.2%, respectively. They were followed by lenders HDFC Bank (HDB) and ICICI Bank (IBN), which were up 6.8% and 6.1%, respectively.The lone decliner from South Asia was IT firm Wipro (WIT), which was down 0.4%.

Scotiabank Sees Canada's New Vehicle Sales Rising Gradually This Year, in 2027 After Q1 2026 Holds Steady

Canadian auto sales marginally declined 0.1% month over month to 1.81 million units at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) in March, based on data from Omdia, said Scotiabank.Upward revisions to data for January and February resulted in Q1 sales averaging 1.79 million SAAR units, stronger than previously expected but still down 0.2% relative to Q4 2025.Non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) sales reported by the same source for March were 170,600, down 7.8% year over year, although compared with a relatively strong start last year before newly imposed tariffs began to upend global trade.When comparing Q1 sales in NSA terms against the same period across recent years, sales were down 6.5% relative to 2025 and down 2.3% relative to 2024.The recent decline in seasonally adjusted new vehicle sales may have bottomed out, as the selling rate over the past two months has increased in line with historical trends, stated Scotiabank. However, only time will tell as there remains a host of competing factors that will impact demand.Canada's overall employment level contracted in January and February, while the unemployment rate trended sideways around 6.7% three-month moving average. Global oil prices remain elevated amid the conflict in the Middle East, which is widely expected to push up headline inflation, while the Bank of Canada will be looking for signs of risks that higher input costs are being passed through to core inflation.While the bank estimates that higher oil prices are likely a small net positive to Canadian gross domestic product growth, higher costs at the pump may weigh on vehicle demand in the near term. Meanwhile, the new federal Electric Vehicle Affordability Program may boost EV sales over the coming months.Scotiabank's outlook for Canadian light vehicle sales is 1.81 million this year. The bank expects demand to gradually improve throughout this year and next, rising to 1.87 million in 2027, although with larger uncertainty given elevated and volatile oil prices clouding the outlook.

Market Chatter: Saudi Pipeline Attack After Ceasefire Threatens Key Oil Export Route

Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, carrying about 5 million barrels per day, was hit by a drone strike after a ceasefire, according to multiple media reports on Wednesday.The strike hit a pumping facility along the pipeline, with officials still evaluating the scale of the impact, according to the reports.The pipeline is a key corridor linking eastern oil fields to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, allowing shipments to bypass the Strait of Hormuz.Saudi Arabia has been running the line at close to full capacity, supporting about 70% of its pre-conflict export levels, underscoring its importance to both national output and broader oil market stability, the reports added.US President Donald Trump has called on Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz under the ceasefire terms, but shipping remained largely restricted on Wednesday, keeping Saudi export routes via Yanbu critical, according to the reports.has reached out to Saudi Aramco for any comments on this.(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)

RPM Beats Fiscal Third-Quarter Estimates, Affirms Sales Growth Expectations

RPM International's (RPM) fiscal third-quarter results topped market expectations, while the specialty coatings manufacturer reiterated its sales growth outlook for the ongoing three-month period.The company on Wednesday reported adjusted earnings of $0.57 per share for the quarter ended Feb. 28, up from last year's $0.35, which was the consensus on FactSet. Sales advanced 8.9% to $1.61 billion, topping the Street's view of $1.55 billion.The stock jumped 12% in Wednesday trade, taking its year-to-gain 4.8%. RPM is the parent of brands including Varathane, which offers wood-finishing products."In a period of volatile market conditions, we generated volume growth and record sales by utilizing our competitive strengths and nimbly focusing on growing end markets," Chief Executive Frank Sullivan said in a statement. "We demonstrated our ability to combine growth with efficiency, leveraging higher volumes to expand margins across all segments."RPM continues to project fourth-quarter sales to increase by a mid-single digit versus the prior-year period. The Street is looking for $2.17 billion."We expect to grow sales and adjusted (earnings before interest and taxes) again in the fourth quarter and deliver record results, even as we face more challenging comparisons and geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East adds cost and complexity to the operating environment," according to Sullivan.The US and Iran on Tuesday agreed to a two-week ceasefire. The war, which began at the end of February, spread across the Middle East and curtailed shipments through the crucial Strait of Hormuz, driving up energy prices.The company is seeking to mitigate higher raw material costs and ensure supply, while implementing pricing actions to offset the remaining cost headwinds, Sullivan said.In the third quarter, sales in the construction products segment climbed nearly 11% to $546.7 million, driven by the company's North American businesses. The performance coatings division saw revenue increase 8.4% to $496.8 million, while the consumer business improved 7.9% to $564.5 million.Price: $108.69, Change: $+11.98, Percent Change: +12.39%

US Natural Gas Update: Futures Drop Nearly 5% on US-Iran Ceasefire, Uncertainties Persist

US natural gas futures were down by over 4% on Wednesday after the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire, marking a major de-escalation in the conflict.Both the front-month Henry Hub contract and the continuous contract dropped 4.77% to $2.73 per million British thermal units.In a Truth Social post on Tuesday, US President Donald Trump announced a pause on attacks against Iran, following a successful ceasefire amid mediation with Pakistan.This was also confirmed by Iran's Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi in a post on X, who also added that for a period of two weeks, ships will be allowed safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, in coordination with Iran's armed forces and subject to "technical limitations."Even though prices have dropped sharply following the announcement, analysts aren't exactly calling it a clean resolution yet, pointing to lingering uncertainty around key details of the agreement.Cyril Widdershoven, a geopolitical strategist, was quick to point out that the critical global energy chokepoint, the Strait of Hormuz, "is not open," and was in fact, being "conditionally managed," with Tehran now fully in control.He also said that despite the drop in natural gas prices, risk premiums for oil, LNG, and shipping markets continued to remain elevated, which he said was a sign of lingering uncertainty.Gary Cunningham of Tradition Energy expects US natural gas prices to reverse, saying that he sees prices at "$3 for the near term and $3.25 for summer."Cunningham also noted that LNG faced a tougher road to recovery since "Qatari facilities were hard hit by Iranian strikes," resulting in a significant chunk of global capacity going offline.Meanwhile, domestic weather conditions continued to turn bearish, with most parts of the country expected to experience above-normal temperatures from April 15 to April 21, according to the National Weather Service.