US Oil Update: Futures Retreat as US-Iran Weigh Talks Amid Hormuz Blockade
Crude futures tumbled in midday trading on Tuesday on reports that the US and Iran are weighing negotiations to extend a two-week ceasefire, as the US Central Command has begun enforcing the blockade of Iranian ports and a partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz.Front-month West Texas Intermediate crude futures dropped by 6.69% to $92.51 per barrel, while Brent futures were down 4.12% to $89.99/bbl."Oil slipped back below $100 after Monday's rebound faded, amid tentative signs that Washington and Tehran may seek to revive previously stalled peace talks," Saxo Bank strategists said in a note Tuesday, noting that the blockade of the Hormuz has begun, with limited immediate impact.The second round of US-Iran peace talks is reportedly under discussion, though nothing has been officially scheduled yet. Iran is considering a short-term pause in its shipments via the Hormuz to avoid testing a US blockade and ruining a fresh round of peace talks, according to media reports.On Tuesday, Trump reportedly signaled that another round of US-Iran negotiations could happen in Islamabad, Pakistan, soon.On the product side, the International Energy Agency said on Tuesday that the Middle East conflict is set to wipe out oil demand growth in 2026, resulting in the first annual decline since the Covid-19 pandemic.The IEA expects global oil demand to contract by 80,000 barrels per day this year, 730,000 b/d less than the agency's previous projection that consumption would grow by 640,000 b/d.On Monday, OPEC said that crude production in the Arabian Gulf plunged in March due to the ongoing Middle East conflict. Iraq saw production dropping from 4.2 million b/d in February to 1.6 million b/d in March, followed by Kuwait and the UAE, which registered declines of 1.4 million b/d and 1.5 million b/d, respectively, over the month.The latest data from OPEC showed that Saudi Arabia's production dropped by 2.3 million b/d, from 10.1 million b/d to 7.8 million b/d.Meanwhile, the US Central Command said on Tuesday that no ships had made it past its blockade of Hormuz, a day after it commenced the blockade, which extends east to the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea.ING strategists said that, despite the blockade, two fuel tankers attempted to exit the Arabian Gulf via routes near Iran's coastline.The US Navy said that over 10,000 army personnel, along with over a dozen warships and dozens of aircraft, are enforcing the blockade.Erik Meyersson, chief EM Strategist at SEB Research, said Monday that without progress on the diplomatic front, Hormuz will remain effectively closed, which would push oil prices higher.