Asia Week Ahead: GDP Growth; Trade Data; and Inflation Prints
For the week ahead in Asia, markets will be focused on a slate of monthly data that will help investors assess how the Middle East conflict is feeding into economic conditions across the region.The week opens Monday with New Zealand's services sector survey and India's March inflation print, as well as a scheduled speech by the Bank of Japan's governor that could offer clues on the timing of a possible rate hike.Attention then shifts Tuesday to China's trade figures and a monetary policy decision in Singapore, alongside business and consumer confidence readings from Australia and industrial production data from Japan.Midweek brings trade and labor market data from India and South Korea, while Thursday is headlined by China's first-quarter GDP report and a broad batch of activity indicators.Friday rounds off the week with Malaysia's preliminary first-quarter GDP and inflation data, as well as Singapore's March trade numbers, including non-oil exports.Here's what to watch in the week ahead.MONDAY, April 13The week kicked off with a report indicating New Zealand's services sector shrank for the third consecutive month as the conflict in the Middle East impacted consumer confidence.The BusinessNZ Performance of Services Index for March came in at 46.0, down 1.6 points from February and 6.6 points lower than the long-term average of 52.8."So poor was the PSI reading that our combined PMI/PSI indicator is suggesting the economy could soon be contracting," said Stephen Toplis, BNZ's head of research.Outside of New Zealand, markets will be on the look out for India's March inflation print.A consensus compiled by Trading Economics indicated that the pace of price increase may have quickened during the month to around 3.5% year on year from the 3.2% recorded in February.The March print will give observers the first real look on how the Indian economy is faring after war broke out in the Middle East.While overall inflation is expected to rise, core inflation--which excludes the impact of some items--is likely to clock in at below 4%, giving the Reserve Bank of India room to shy away from a hawkish stance near term, economists at DBS said, the Wall Street Journal reported.Meanwhile, markets will also be closely following a scheduled speech by Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda on the possible timing of a rate hike. The central bank is reportedly considering a rate hike this month to counter price pressures from the Iran war.Elsewhere, Indonesia reported a 6.5% annual rise in retail sales during February, quickening from the 5.7% growth witnessed a month prior.TUESDAY, April 14China's trade figures will capture headlines Tuesday.The world's second-largest economy could report a trade surplus of $112 billion in March, higher than the $91 billion captured in February, according to a consensus compiled by Trading Economics.Despite the rising surplus, economists at ING said they expect March export growth to moderate from the figures seen in the first two months of the year.A monetary policy decision and an advance estimate of GDP growth in the first quarter is expected in Singapore.Unlike other economies, Singapore tweaks its currency exchange rate rather than its domestic interest rates to control inflation. While the Monetary Authority of Singapore has not adjusted its policy since April 2025, it is now expected to tighten the valves in response to the Middle East conflict, according to a survey of economists compiled by Bloomberg, CNA Digital reported.Meanwhile, Singapore's economy likely slowed during the first three months of the year due to a pullback in manufacturing activity, the WSJ reported, citing Barclays economists.The city-state's economy expanded 6.9% year-on-year in the final quarter of 2025 and by 5% during the entirety of the year.In January, the city-state had upgraded its 2026 forecast to a range of 2% to 4%, with growth outlook raised to 3%. However, Deputy Prime Minister Gan Kim Yong said in March the government will reassess its GDP forecast following the U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran.A pair of reports covering business and consumer confidence in Australia are expected.Consumer confidence was near the bottom of its 18-month range in March, and the April survey was shaping up for a bigger drop as consumers reckoned with the implications of the conflict in the Middle East, the National Australia Bank said in a preview.Meanwhile, the March business confidence report should capture the flow through impacts from the energy crisis and higher borrowing costs in Australia, Westpac said."Widespread supply disruptions and soaring energy costs are likely to be reflected in higher business input and output costs," the firm said in a note.Japan's industrial production stats will also be in focus on Tuesday, while India will release wholesale price inflation data the same day.WEDNESDAY, April 15A slew of macro data from India and South Korea will be in the news Wednesday.India will report its trade figures for March which could show a widening of the trade deficit to $32.75 billion from $27.1 billion in the month prior, according to a consensus compiled by Trading Economics.Labor data, due the same day, could show unemployment climbed to 5.1% from 4.9% in February, according to another Trading Economics consensus estimate.South Korea will similarly report March labor data and export and import prices.Unemployment in South Korea has been on a downward trajectory since December when it stood at 3.3%. The most recent reading was of 2.9%.Japan's machinery orders stats are also scheduled for release Wednesday.THURSDAY, April 16Markets will turn their attention to a flurry of data coming in from China, including the closely watched GDP growth rate for the first quarter of the year.Analysts place China's Q1 GDP growth rate at 4.9% year on year, rising from the 4.5% recorded in the closing months of 2025, the WSJ reported. Economists at DBS attributed the expected rise in growth to a jump in overseas demand for Chinese goods, the WSJ added.The GDP release will be accompanied by China's house price index, offering an insight into new home prices across 70 cities that markets use as a benchmark. New prices are expected to stay in negative territory, though any moderation would be viewed positively, economists at ING said.Additional releases will include China's industrial production data, retail sales figures, and unemployment stats."Other than industrial production, which we expect to grow around 5.5% YoY, economic activity data is likely to remain rather soft in March," ING said in a preview.Labor data from Australia is also expected Thursday.The National Australia Bank expects the jobless rate to stay at 4.3%, with employment rising by 25,000. "While the survey period captures the escalation in the Middle East conflict, it is likely too early to see a response to this reflected in the data," NAB said in a note.The Reuters Tankan Index for April, a key gauge of Japanese business confidence, will be due the same day.FRIDAY, April 17The week rounds off with Malaysia's preliminary GDP growth rate figures for the first quarter of the year.Economists at ANZ expect first-quarter growth to ease to 5.3% from the 6.3% recorded in the final quarter of 2025, the WSJ reported. Despite stronger agriculture output, the Malaysian economy saw industrial and retail activity moderate during the opening months of 2026, the report said, citing ANZ.Malaysia's inflation data is also expected Friday, with Trading Economics forecasting the pace of price increase to quicken to 1.8% year on year from the 1.4% recorded in February.Singapore reports March trade data, including non-oil exports, the same day.
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