EMEA Natural Gas Update: Futures Drop Nearly 7% After JD Vance Signals Optimism on Iran Peace Deal
European natural gas futures were down on Friday after some apparent progress seen towards a lasting peace deal between the US, Israel and Iran after US Vice President JD Vance expressed optimism about a positive outcome.The front-month Dutch TTF contract fell 6.44% to 43.20 euros ($50.66) per megawatt-hour, while UK NBP futures lost 6.75% to 108.88 pence ($1.46) per therm. Dutch TTF futures were set to end the week down by 13.53%, while UK gas was down 14.09%, according to data from Trading Economics.On Friday, Vance departed to Islamabad, Pakistan, to hold talks with Iran, while noting that President Donald Trump had set firm expectations for the negotiating team. Vance also said that a "good faith effort" from the Iranian side could lead to a "successful" deal.Meanwhile, Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam is expected to visit Washington, after Israel requested direct negotiation following its attacks against the country, according to a CNN report.All of these developments point towards potential de-escalation in hostilities in the Middle East, leading to pressure on European natural gas prices.Meanwhile, the Strait of Hormuz, was still effectively closed for the sixth week running, with just five vessels passing through it over the past 24 hours, according to the Hormuz Strait Monitor.This is in sharp contrast to the typical daily average of 138 ships per day, according to the UK's Joint Maritime Information Center, which noted that there were no new vessel attacks over the past 24 hours.Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, the CEO of Adnoc, the UAE's state-owned oil company, said that despite the ceasefire announcement earlier this week, the Strait of Hormuz had not reopened.Access to the crucial Strait, which handles 20% of global LNG flows, he said, was still being "restricted, conditioned and controlled," in a social media post on Thursday.Daniel Hynes, a senior commodity strategist at ANZ, said there was "no end in sight to the impasse," with LNG tankers still stuck in the Persian Gulf.Hynes also added that the resulting supply tightness was being compounded by the outages in Australia's LNG facilities, with Chevron's Wheatstone gas facility operating at just 50% of capacity, due to damage from Cyclone Narelle last month.All of this comes at a critical juncture for European markets, as the region enters refilling season with low inventories, at just 28.92% of capacity, compared to 34.97% last year, according to data from Gas Infrastructure Europe.