EMEA Oil Update: Prices Below $100 as Middle East Conflict Lingers
Crude oil futures attempted to stabilize below $100 threshold on Friday as significant physical supply constraints counteracted optimism surrounding the two-weeks ceasefire.The front-month Murban crude contract dropped 1.7% at $97.97 per barrel. Brent futures contract eased 0.4% at $95.91/bbl."Crude prices try to [stabilize] below [$]100 following the sharpest weekly drop since last June yet remain underpinned by mixed signals surrounding the proposed peace plan, a roughly 600,000 b/d cut in Saudi production capacity, and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz since late February," Saxo Bank analysts said."Meanwhile, spot Brent transactions continue to clear at notable premiums to futures, underscoring mounting supply stress as refiners scramble to replace disrupted Middle East flows," they added.An April 9-dated news article by the Saudi Press Agency citing the Energy Ministry referred to an attack "recently" on a pumping station on the East-West pipeline, which it said caused a loss of about 700,000 barrels in throughput.It did not make mention of the origin of the attack but a source told Reuters on Wednesday that it came from Iran, damaging Saudi Arabia's main alternative route to export markets since the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.Market analysts warned that the damage to infrastructure may cause long-term disruptions. Oil and gas output has already been scaled back, and refinery operations remain curtailed, meaning it could take weeks or months to fully reverse the supply shock.Analysts from ING noted that while there was initial optimism regarding a resolution to the six-week conflict, geopolitical risk premiums remain high following new threats from Washington toward Tehran.US President Donald Trump warned Iran on Thursday amid reports that Tehran has started charging transit fees on tankers navigating the Strait of Hormuz, as shipping through the key waterway remains largely restricted despite the ceasefire deal."There are reports that Iran is charging fees to tankers going through the Hormuz Strait," Trump said in a social media post on Truth Social, "They better not be and, if they are, they better stop now!"According to TRM Labs Thursday note, Iran's new toll framework requires payments of up to $2 million per vessel payable in cryptocurrency or Chinese yuan generating an estimated $20 million in daily revenue for Tehran.Further tightening the squeeze, the Tass news agency reported citing a senior Iranian source that Iran will limit transit to a maximum of 15 ships per day.The source reportedly said that under the current ceasefire, "fewer than 15 ships per day" will be permitted to sail via the Strait of Hormuz, according to the report.All eyes are now on the high-stakes talks between a US delegation and Iranian officials scheduled for this weekend.