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Alleged Ceasefire Violations in Middle East, Shipping Halt in Strait of Hormuz Dampen US Equity Futures Pre-Bell

US equity futures were lower pre-bell Thursday after Iran accused the US of violating the two-week ceasefire agreement between the two nations announced on late Tuesday and halted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz after Israel's attack on Lebanon.Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were 0.4% lower, S&P 500 futures were down 0.3%, and Nasdaq futures were 0.2% lower.Iran's parliamentary speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, said that the violations of the ceasefire agreement include Israel's continued attacks on Lebanon, drone incursions into Iran, and the denial of Iran's right to enrich uranium. The White House has said that Lebanon is not part of the agreement.Oil prices were higher, with front-month global benchmark North Sea Brent crude up 3% at $97.59 per barrel and US West Texas Intermediate crude 4.5% higher at $98.62 per barrel.The February core personal consumption expenditures price index, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, released at 8:30 am ET, gained 0.4%, matching the prior month's increase and meeting estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Initial jobless claims increased to 219,000 in the week ended April 4 from 203,000 in the previous week, compared with expectations for an increase to 210,000. Q4 GDP growth was revised down to a 0.5% annual rate from 0.7% previously, compared with expectations for no change.In other world markets, Japan's Nikkei closed 0.7% lower, Hong Kong's Hang Seng ended 0.5% lower, and China's Shanghai Composite finished 0.7% lower. Meanwhile, the UK's FTSE 100 was down 0.3%, and Germany's DAX index was down 1.1% in Europe's early afternoon session.In equities, Novo Nordisk (NVO) stock was down 1.4% after Bloomberg reported that the company's therapy semaglutide is facing pressure in India due to an increase in generic versions of the drug.On the winning side, TotalEnergies (TTE) shares were up 2.7% after multiple media outlets reported that the oil company was included in exemptions from Brazil's newly-enacted 12% export tax.

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US Markets10d ago

Stocks Decline Pre-Bell Amid Uncertainty Over US-Iran Truce; Key Inflation Report on Deck

US equity markets were trending lower before the opening bell Thursday as investors assess uncertainty over the recent two-week ceasefire deal between the US and Iran, and await a key inflation report.The S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.3% each in premarket activity, while the Nasdaq was off 0.2%. The indexes finished Wednesday's trading in the green, recording their highest close in at least four weeks.In a Wednesday post on X, Iran's parliamentary speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, said the US violated three clauses of Tehran's 10-point ceasefire proposal. The violations include Israel's attacks on Lebanon, the entry of a drone into Iranian airspace and the denial of Tehran's right to enrich uranium, according to Ghalibaf."The deep historical distrust we hold toward the (US) stems from its repeated violations of all forms of commitments - a pattern that has regrettably been repeated once again," Ghalibaf said. "In such situation, a bilateral ceasefire or negotiations is unreasonable."In a late Wednesday post on Truth Social, President Donald Trump said US ships, aircraft and military personnel will "remain in and around Iran" until the "real agreement reached is fully complied with.""It was agreed, a long time ago, and despite all of the fake rhetoric to the contrary - no nuclear weapons and, the Strait of Hormuz will be open and safe," according to Trump.On Tuesday, Trump announced that he agreed to suspend attacks on Iran for a period of two weeks, subject to Tehran agreeing to the complete and safe opening of the strait, the world's most important chokepoint for crude flows. Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi had said in a statement that the country will allow "safe passage" through the strait during the two-week ceasefire through coordination with its armed forces and "with due consideration of technical limitations."Delegations from both countries are scheduled to meet in Islamabad, Pakistan on Friday to negotiate a "conclusive agreement to settle all disputes," Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said Tuesday.West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose 3.5% to $97.70 a barrel before the open, while Brent increased 3.3% to $97.87."The headlines may calm down first, but the real reset depends on what happens in the days ahead," Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo Bank, said in a report Wednesday.The delayed personal income and outlays report for February is scheduled to be released at 8:30 am ET. The report includes the personal consumption expenditure core price index, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation metric.Minutes from the Federal Reserve's March meeting showed Wednesday that participants emphasized the need for the central bank to be "nimble" in adjusting monetary policy amid heightened macro risks. Most policymakers were concerned that a prolonged war could soften labor market conditions, possibly warranting policy easing, according to the minutes. However, persistent inflation amid higher oil prices could call for rate increases.Markets widely expect the Fed to keep its benchmark lending rate steady at its next policy meeting later in April, according to the CME FedWatch tool.Treasury yields were down in premarket action, with the two-year rate retreating 0.5 basis points to 3.79% and the 10-year rate off 0.4 basis points to 4.29%.Thursday's economic calendar also has the delayed final estimate report for the fourth-quarter gross domestic product at 8:30 am, as well as the weekly jobless claims report.Shares of Constellation Brands (STZ) declined 0.9% pre-bell after the beer and wine company issued a full-year earnings outlook below Wall Street's estimates.Neogen (NEOG), BlackBerry (BB) and Simply Good Foods (SMPL) report their latest financial results before the bell, among others. WD-40 (WDFC) posts its earnings after the markets close.Gold sipped 0.5% to $4,752 per troy ounce, while bitcoin nudged up 0.2% to $71,399.

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Oil & Energy10d ago

Middle East Oil, Gas Output Recovery to Take Months Despite Hormuz Ceasefire, Warns Wood Mackenzie

After the ceasefire between the US, Israel, and Iran this week, a recovery in oil and gas flows through the Middle East is still a long way off, with plenty of steps and processes that could last months, according to a report by commodity analysts at Wood Mackenzie.The report said that 11 million barrels per day of upstream oil production remains shut in, meaning they are not currently operational, even as the underlying capacity remains intact. This cannot be restored until export routes normalize and vessel traffic resumes at scale.In order to bring these barrels back to market, "A 'workable system' of transit and shipowner confidence in the security of the transiting vessels is essential," said Alan Gelder, SVP Refining, Chemicals and Oil Markets at Wood Mackenzie.Gelder added that facilitating insurance, trade finance and "sustained inbound vessel transits" are key in restoring confidence in the Strait.He also noted that ballasting vessels, or ships that come in empty to pick up oil, will not be willing to do so, given the risk of getting trapped, if hostilities were to resume once again after the two week ceasefire.The report noted that as exports begin to ramp-up, storage will help facilitate upstream production and refining to restart activity in full-swing.However, it noted that not all countries have sufficient storage. As such, Saudi Arabia and the UAE can ramp up output quickly, while Iraq could take six to nine months to return to pre-conflict output levels due to reservoir and operational complexities.Coming to the global gas markets, the ceasefire may allow trapped LNG cargoes in the Gulf to exit, offering limited near-term relief, according to Wood Mackenzie.For real structural change in supply, however, Qatar's Ras Laffan LNG facility has to restart its 12 operable trains, according to Tom Marzec-Manser, Europe Gas and LNG analyst at Wood Mackenzie. "It is unclear if QatarEnergy would consider doing this during a ceasefire," he said.The firm estimates that even if restart efforts begin in early May, full restoration of all 12 trains could take until the end of August, while damaged capacity at the South site may remain offline for years.Meanwhile, disruptions to domestic gas infrastructure in the UAE could further complicate regional supply dynamics, Marzec-Manser said.He warned that "sustained disruption at Habshan," Abu Dhabi's gas processing facility, could significantly tighten domestic gas availability, potentially forcing the UAE to cut reinjection volumes or even ramp up imports via the Dolphin pipeline system.

Financial News

Alleged Ceasefire Violations in Middle East, Shipping Halt in Strait of Hormuz Dampen US Equity Futures Pre-Bell

Alleged Ceasefire Violations in Middle East, Shipping Halt in Strait of Hormuz Dampen US Equity Futures Pre-Bell

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