Financial News

US Crude Update: Futures Fall as Markets Weigh US-Iran Ceasefire

Crude oil futures slipped in midday trading on Wednesday as a two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran eased immediate fears of supply disruption and boosted hopes of reopening the Strait of Hormuz.Front-month West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 15.81% to $95.81 per barrel, while Brent futures were down by 12.89% to $95.22/bbl.US crude stockpiles rose by 3.1 million barrels to 464.7 mmbbls in the week ended Apr. 3, the Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report on Wednesday. Crude inventories are now about 2% above the five-year average for this time of year.On Wednesday, President Trump said he had agreed to suspend planned attacks on Iranian infrastructure for two weeks, subject to Tehran agreeing to a "complete, immediate, and safe" passage via the Strait of Hormuz."Further price direction will hinge on whether talks translate into a durable agreement and a sustained normalization of flows through the strait, with volatility likely to persist during negotiations later this week," ING strategists said.However, mixed signals have emerged on vessels transiting the strait.According to ship-tracking firms, overall traffic through the Strait has not picked up 12 hours into the ceasefire, amid doubts about the shape of a final peace agreement. Two ships have passed through the Strait of Hormuz since Iran agreed to reopen the waterway as part of a ceasefire deal, according to Marine Traffic.On Wednesday, Iran closed the Hormuz and fired dozens of missiles across the Arabian Gulf in response to strikes at its Lavan oil refinery and Israeli attacks on Lebanon.Iran's Foreign Minister, Seyed Abbas Aragchi, said that if attacks against his country stop, Tehran would cease counter-attacks and provide safe passage in coordination with its armed forces, "and with due consideration of technical limitations."During a press briefing on Wednesday, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt, however, maintained that an uptick in vessel traffic has been observed and that the US is continuously monitoring the strait.Though the ceasefire creates a window for transit via the strategic waterway, flows remain conditional and operationally constrained.Kpler strategists said that 172 million barrels of crude and products are still on the water in the Arabian Gulf, spread across about 187 laden tankers.The analysts said three-quarters of the volume is crude and condensate, heavily concentrated on VLCCs and dominated by medium- and heavy-sour grades from Saudi Arabia, Iraq and the UAE.

Equity Markets Jump Intraday, Oil Sinks Following US-Iran Ceasefire

US benchmark equity indexes rallied intraday, while oil prices slumped after Washington and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire.The Nasdaq Composite jumped 2.9% to 22,651.5 after midday Wednesday, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 2.6% to 47,803.5. The S&P 500 advanced 2.4% to 6,778.6. Barring energy's 4.6% decline, all sectors were in the green, led by a 3.9% rise in communication services.West Texas Intermediate crude oil sank 15% to $95.85 a barrel intraday, while Brent futures tumbled 13% to $95.40.US President Donald Trump, who had set an 8 pm ET, Tuesday, deadline for Tehran to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz, agreed to suspend planned attacks on Iran for two weeks upon Pakistan's request. Tehran said it would allow "safe passage" through the key trading route, subject to coordination with Iranian authorities.However, reports about ceasefire violations signified the possible fragile nature of the pact."While markets are hailing the agreement as cause for celebration, it remains to be seen if the ceasefire will hold, and if flows resume through the Strait of Hormuz," Stifel said in a note.Iran halted oil tanker traffic through the waterway after Israel attacked Lebanon, CNN reported Wednesday, citing semi-official news agency Fars. Separately, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates reportedly said they were targeted with Iranian drones and missiles.Airline and cruise operator stocks jumped intraday, with Carnival (CCL) up 11%, the top gainer on the S&P 500. United Airlines (UAL) surged 9.9%, among the best performers on the index. Southwest Airlines (LUV) and American Airlines (AAL) were also up sharply, along with Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH) and Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL).US Treasury yields were lower intraday, with the 10-year rate down 6.4 basis points at 4.28% and the two-year rate dropping six basis points to 3.77%.In company news, Meta Platforms (META) shares soared 7.9%, among the best performers on the S&P 500, after the tech giant unveiled its Muse Spark artificial intelligence model.Delta Air Lines (DAL) logged better-than-expected first-quarter results amid robust corporate and leisure demand. The air carrier's shares were up 5.8% intraday.Exxon Mobil (XOM) expects its global oil-equivalent output to take a hit in the first quarter due to production disruptions caused by the Middle East conflict. Shares of the US oil giant were down 5.9%, while smaller rival Chevron (CVX) fell 5.5%, the steepest decline on the Dow.Gold was up 1.7% at $4,764.70 per troy ounce, while silver gained 4.7% to $75.35 per ounce.

Vance, Witkoff, Kushner to Head to Islamabad for 1st Round of Iran Talks on Saturday: Leavitt

US-Iran Talks Limited to 1 Group of Points, Talks to Stay Private, Trump Says

US President Donald Trump addressed reports on the ongoing US-Iran talks on Wednesday, saying that the discussions were based on "one group" of points."There is only one group of meaningful 'points' that are acceptable to the United States, and we will be discussing them behind closed doors during these negotiations," Trump said in a Truth Social post.Trump said in a Truth Social post, "These are the points that are the basis on which we agreed to a ceasefire. It is something that is reasonable and can easily be dispensed with."He added that "numerous agreements, lists, and letters" tied to the negotiations were being floated by individuals with "absolutely nothing to do" with official US-Iran talks.Trump also criticized media coverage, saying reports referencing sources with "no power or authority" were misleading.He said such unauthorized efforts would be uncovered through a federal investigation, while emphasizing that discussions would take place privately based on the agreed ceasefire framework.

The North West Company Q4 Adjusted Earnings Lower

The North West Company (NWC.TO), up near 6% on last look, on Wednesday reported lower fourth-quarter adjusted earnings.The company, which operates grocery stores in Canada's North and the Caribbean, said adjusted earnings, excluding most one-time items, edged down to $43.5 million, from $44.6 million, in the prior year period. The company did not provide per share amounts.Sales for the fourth quarter rose 0.1% to $675.5 million. Analysts polled by FactSet had forecast sales of $658.0 million. Higher sales in the company's international operations sales were largely offset by lower sales in Canada.Canadian same store sales , down 2.8% compared to very strong same store sales gains last year of 6.7%, were negatively impacted by a decrease in the distribution of funding to individuals from First Nations Child and Family Services programs, North West added.North West also said refinanced its $400.0 million and US$52.0 million loan facilities that were originally maturing March 1, 2027. The loan facilities, refinanced with existing lenders, will now mature April 8, 2031.The company will pay a regular quarterly dividend of $0.41 per share on April 24, to shareholders of record on April 15.North West Company shares were last seen up $3.03 to $55.25 on the Toronto Stock Exchange.Price: $55.21, Change: $+2.99, Percent Change: +5.73%

US-Iran Truce Outlook Unclear, Analysts Caution Amid Reports of Ceasefire Violations

Markets hailed a two-week pause in hostilities between the US and Iran, though analysts raised questions about the durability of the truce, with ceasefire violations already making headlines.Global equity markets rallied Wednesday and oil prices plunged below $100 per barrel following an agreement between Washington and Tehran to pause their military conflict that had spread across the Middle East.Trump, who had set an 8 pm ET deadline on Tuesday for Iran to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz, agreed to suspend planned attacks on Iran for two weeks upon Pakistan's request. Tehran said it would allow "safe passage" through the key trading route, subject to coordination with Iranian authorities."While markets are hailing the agreement as cause for celebration, it remains to be seen if the ceasefire will hold, and if flows resume through the Strait of Hormuz," Stifel Chief Economist Lindsey Piegza said in a report.Reports about ceasefire violations kept investors on the edge, signifying the possible fragile nature of the pact.Iran halted oil tanker traffic through the waterway after Israel attacked Lebanon, CNN reported, citing semi-official news agency Fars. Separately, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates reportedly said they were targeted with Iranian drones and missiles.Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, who along with Field Marshal Asim Munir helped broker the truce, said in a post on X that ceasefire violations "undermine the spirit of peace process.""The ceasefire effectively halts imminent large-scale strikes and creates space for negotiations, but it does not resolve the underlying conflict or infrastructure damage," said Suvro Sarkar, head of energy, renewables and infra research at DBS Bank, said. "Two weeks is a very narrow window, and the structural damage to supply chains runs deep."The focus shifts to Iran's 10-point proposal to the US, which includes the lifting of sanctions against Iran, recognition of Iran's enrichment program and continued control over the Strait of Hormuz, according to media reports."If this is truly the basis of negotiation, talks will likely be difficult as some (of) these terms, particularly control of the strait, are likely unpalatable for regional powers with it being reported that Iran still intends to charge a toll for passage," Tudor Pickering Holt analyst Matt Portillo said in a note e-mailed to.

Exchange-Traded Funds Rise as US Equities Edge Higher After Midday

Broad Market IndicatorsBroad-market exchange-traded funds IWM and IVV advanced. Actively traded Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) was up 3.1%.US equity indexes jumped while crude oil futures sank as a conditional two-week ceasefire agreement with Iran boosted investor confidence and eased geopolitical tensions.EnergyIShares US Energy ETF (IYE) and the State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE) each dropped about 4.6%.TechnologyThe State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLK) added 3.3%; iShares US Technology ETF (IYW) was 3.5% higher, while iShares Expanded Tech Sector ETF (IGM) rose 3.7%.The State Street SPDR S&P Semiconductor (XSD) advanced 5.3%, and iShares Semiconductor (SOXX) was up 6.2%.FinancialThe State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF) gained 2.5%. Direxion Daily Financial Bull 3X Shares (FAS) climbed up 7.3%, and its bearish counterpart, Direxion Daily Financial Bear 3X Shares (FAZ), declined 7.5%.CommoditiesCrude oil dropped 15.7%, and the United States Oil Fund (USO) shed 11.5%. Natural gas fell 5%, and the United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG) was down 4.5%.Gold on Comex was up 2.1%, and the State Street SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) added 1.3%. Silver rose 5.2%, and iShares Silver Trust (SLV) gained 3.9%.ConsumerThe State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR (XLP) rose 1.2%. The Vanguard Consumer Staples ETF (VDC) added 1.3%, and iShares Dow Jones US Consumer Goods (IYK) was 0.9% higher.The State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR (XLY) rose 3.3%. VanEck Retail ETF (RTH) added 2.3%, while the State Street SPDR S&P Retail (XRT) was up 2.7%.Health CareThe State Street Health Care Select Sector SPDR (XLV) climbed 1.9%, and iShares US Healthcare (IYH) and Vanguard Health Care ETF (VHT) also moved higher. IShares Biotechnology ETF (IBB) rose 1.9%.IndustrialThe State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR (XLI) advanced 3.6%. Vanguard Industrials Index Fund (VIS) rose 3.9%, and iShares US Industrials (IYJ) was up 3.7%.CryptocurrencyIn midday activity, bitcoin (BTC-USD) rose 3.7%. Among cryptocurrency ETFs, ProShares Bitcoin ETF (BITO) added 3.8%, ProShares Ether ETF (EETH) gained 3.9%, and ProShares Bitcoin & Ether Market Cap Weight ETF (BETH) was up 2.8%.

US 10-Year Auction High Yield Rises From Previous Auction, Demand Lower

The US Treasury's 10-year auction hit a high yield of 4.282% on Wednesday, up from the 4.217% high in the previous auction.The bid to cover ratio for the auction was 2.43, below the 2.45 ratio in the previous auction.Dealers represented 54.17% of the bids, with direct bidders at 11.93% and indirect bidders at 33.90%.For takedown, dealers took 10.80%, with direct bidders at 23.88% and indirect bidders at 65.32%.

US 10-Year High Yield 4.282% vs 4.217% Previous; Bid/Cover 2.43 vs 2.45 Previous

Hormuz Shipping Reportedly Halted Amid Lebanon Strikes

Oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz was halted after Israeli strikes on Lebanon, raising fresh risks to global energy flows, Fars News Agency reported Wednesday.The disruption came amid renewed strikes despite the recently announced ceasefire, halting tanker movements as military activity in Lebanon intensified, according to Fars News posts on X.Iran is reportedly weighing punitive action against Israel over alleged ceasefire breaches, with the IRGC-associated Tasnim News Agency reporting Tehran may even withdraw from the truce if strikes continue.Israel launched about 100 airstrikes in roughly 10 minutes, leaving at least 89 people dead and over 700 injured, media reports said, citing Lebanon's Health Ministry.US President Donald Trump reportedly said Lebanon is not part of the two-week ceasefire deal, describing Israel's actions there as a separate conflict, according to PBS.Trump reportedly said Lebanon was excluded due to Hezbollah and indicated the group would be "dealt with," reinforcing that the ceasefire framework does not apply to current hostilities there.Regional tensions also spread to Gulf states, with Kuwait reporting severe damage to oil facilities, power stations, and water plants following drone attacks, while Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Bahrain also reported strikes, according to media reports.has separately reached out to Iran's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the White House and Kuwait's Interior Ministry for any comments.Oil markets remain highly sensitive to developments around Hormuz, with prices initially falling after the ceasefire but then showing volatility as disruptions to shipping and renewed attacks cloud the supply outlook.Oil prices recovered losses in midday trading, with WTI rising to $95 per barrel after falling to a low of $91.05/bbl earlier in the session. Similarly, Brent climbed to $94.94/bbl after earlier declining to $90.40/bbl, while Murban rose to $96.96/bbl from $94.38/bbl.

Weekly Mortgage Applications Decrease Amid Elevated Rates, Economic Uncertainty

Mortgage applications in the US fell last week amid elevated rates and continued macro uncertainty, the Mortgage Bankers Association said Wednesday.The market composite index, which measures loan application volume, dropped 0.8% for the week through Friday on a seasonally adjusted basis. Without adjustments, the index decreased 1% week over week."Higher mortgage rates and continued economic uncertainty weighed down on mortgage applications again last week," said Joel Kan, the MBA's deputy chief economist. "Many potential refinance borrowers have been frozen out by the sharp increase (in mortgage rates) over the past month."In late March, mortgage rates jumped to 6.38% from 5.98% at the end of the previous month, real estate marketplace Zillow Group (Z, ZG) said earlier this week, citing Freddie Mac data.Late Tuesday, the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire. The war, which began at the end of February, spread across the Middle East and curtailed shipments through the crucial Strait of Hormuz, driving up energy prices.The average interest rate for 30-year fixed mortgages with conforming loan balances of $832,750 or less fell to 6.51% from 6.57% a week ago, the MBA reported Wednesday. For loan balances higher than that amount, the rate dropped to 6.54% from 6.59%. For 15-year loans, the rate edged higher to 5.90% from 5.89% week to week.The refinance index moved down 3% on a weekly basis, with the pace of refinance applications at its lowest level since December, according to Kan.The seasonally adjusted purchase index rose 1% from a week earlier. Without adjustments, the index increased 1% sequentially, and was 7% lower than a year earlier, representing its first annual decline since January 2025, Kan said."Overall purchase activity has also been adversely impacted by current conditions," Kan said. "However, certain loan types and geographic segments are faring better than others because of lower rates on (adjustable-rate mortgage) and (Federal Housing Administration) loans, as well as growing housing inventory in some local markets."Fixed-rate mortgages with 30-year terms backed by the FHA fell to 6.22% from 6.25% the week before. The share of FHA loans, which are often used by first-time home buyers and can involve smaller down payments, inched lower to 19.3% of total applications from 19.5%, according to the MBA.Price: $41.84, Change: $+1.05, Percent Change: +2.57%

US Equity Indexes Surge, Crude Oil Plummets as Iran Ceasefire Deal Eases Geopolitical Risk

US equity indexes jumped while crude oil futures sank as a conditional two-week ceasefire agreement with Iran boosted investor confidence and eased geopolitical tensions.The Nasdaq Composite surged 2.9% to 22,654.4, the S&P 500 soared 2.4% to 6,775.6, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average catapulted 2.6% to 47,781.1. All sectors except energy rose intraday. Industrials, consumer discretionary, and technology led the gainers.Pakistan's prime minister invited delegations from Iran and the US to Islamabad for talks on Friday, CNN reported. Trump's special envoy Steve Witkoff, son-in-law Jared Kushner, and Vice President JD Vance are expected to attend to reach a final settlement with Tehran.Meanwhile, President Donald Trump suggested the US may be involved in securing the critical Strait of Hormuz waterway in a "joint venture" with Iran, the news report said. Tehran said its military will coordinate the passage of ships."With the Iran ceasefire news overnight this is a major positive development for overall markets with a risk-on appetite now set to return to the market," Wedbush Securities analysts, including Dan Ives, said in a note. "The nervous geopolitical backdrop over the past few months has created an oversold tech environment for Mag 7, software names, and many tech winners in the AI Revolution."West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures sank 16% to $94.63, and Brent crude futures plunged 15% to $94.42.The ceasefire announced overnight has taken the panic premium out of oil, but not the full risk premium, Rystad Energy said in a research note. "Prices are not snapping back to pre-war levels due to the scale of disruption and backlog-clearing mechanisms that will take some time to normalize."US Treasury yields fell, with the 10-year down 6.8 basis points to 4.28% and the two-year rate lower by 6.4 basis points to 3.77%.In precious metals, gold futures jumped 2.1% to $4,782.1 and silver futures advanced 5.2% to $75.69.Airline and cruise operator stocks surged following the ceasefire deal. Carnival (CCL) soared 10%, the top gainer on the S&P 500. United Airlines (UAL) advanced 10%, among the biggest outperformers on the index.On Nasdaq, Lam Research (LRCX) was among the top gainers, up 9%, while Diamondback Energy (FANG) was the steepest decliner, down 5.9%. The worst performer on the Dow was Chevron (CVX), with shares slumping 5.7%.In economic news, the minutes of the March 17-18 Federal Open Market Committee meeting are scheduled at 2:00 pm ET.

Gulf Countries Intercept Iranian Missiles Hours After Ceasefire Deal

Gulf countries intercepted dozens of Iranian missiles and drones on Wednesday, just hours after a Pakistan-mediated ceasefire was intended to pause weeks of intense regional hostilities that have roiled energy markets.Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said Wednesday that violations of the ceasefire were reported across the Middle East, which undermines the peace process."I earnestly and sincerely urge all parties to exercise restraint and respect the ceasefire for two weeks, as agreed upon, so that diplomacy can take a lead role towards peaceful settlement of the conflict," Sharif said in a social media post on X.The UAE on Wednesday said its air defenses "are actively engaging" incoming missiles and drones from Iran. The country intercepted 17 Iranian ballistic missiles and 35 unmanned aerial vehicles. Sources in the UAE toldthey received emergency alerts several hours after a ceasefire had been declared.Iran reportedly attacked Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline on Wednesday, hitting the OPEC+ producer's only crude oil export route since the outbreak of the Middle East conflict.Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline, the country's only outlet for exporting crude oil, was hit in an Iranian attack, while other facilities in the Gulf country were also targeted, according to media reports.The pipeline, which channels about 7 million barrels of oil per day from the eastern oil fields to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, has become a critical alternative following the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz.Kuwait's army also said Iranian drones targeted vital oil facilities operated by Kuwait Petroleum Corporation as well as power stations and water desalination plants, causing serious infrastructure damage.Lebanon came under intense attack after Israel said it would continue its assault on the country, contradicting mediator Pakistan, prompting Iran to threaten to pull out from the ceasefire.On Wednesday, Israel Defense Forces posted on X that it completed the largest coordinated strike across Lebanon since the start of the Middle East conflict, targeting Beirut, Beqaa and southern Lebanon.Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump reportedly told PBS on Wednesday that Israel's strikes on Lebanon were a "separate skirmish" and not included in the ceasefire agreement because of Hezbollah. However, he reportedly said that this would "get taken care of."

UBS Still Sees Bank of Canada on Hold This Year Despite Higher Inflation Forecasts

Despite marking up its inflation projections and keeping topline economic growth unchanged, UBS said it continues to expect the Bank of Canada to remain on hold this year.The latest signaling from the BoC is consistent with a cautious approach to changes in the policy rate in either direction, wrote the bank in a note to clients.The Summary of Deliberations from the March policy meeting was consistent with a cautious approach, pointed out UBS.Softer growth and a starting point of uncertainty already weighing on business and consumer confidence leave a dilemma for the BoC, stated the bank. The signaling at the March meeting suggested that the BoC would look through the immediate impact of higher energy costs on inflation but would be watching for signs of price pressures broadening when considering the appropriate policy stance.The Summary of Deliberations acknowledged the soft starting point for the economy: "The war in Iran had clearly added a new layer of uncertainty, but they agreed that they should not lose sight of the other risks already facing the economy: shifting US trade policy, the upcoming review of the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement, and ongoing structural changes."The discussion at the March meeting also drew upon a recent speech by Deputy Governor Sharon Kozicki on how the BoC thinks about supply-side shocks: "Members considered the role of monetary policy when a supply shock hits the economy. They noted that inflationary pressures from higher energy prices were expected to push inflation above target with the economy in excess supply. This presents a difficult trade-off for monetary policy."

TSX Jumps 433 Points at Midday After U.S.-Iran Ceasefire Deal

The Toronto Stock Exchange has rallied sharply today, jumping over 433 points at midday, after Tuesday evening's news about a two-week ceasefire deal between the U.S. and Iran, brokered by Pakistan.The best performers are miners, up 5.8%, boosted by higher metals prices.Energy and telecoms are the sole decliner, down 5.3% and 0.2%, respectively. Oil prices plunged after the two-week ceasefire deal was announced, that possibly includes a re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz. Reuters reports shippers are "seeking clarity" from the U.S. and Iran about navigating the strait.In stocks, Blackline Safety (BLN.TO) is up 26% to $8.93 after Francisco Partners said it would acquire the company in a deal worth up to $850 million.

Share of Canada's Exports to The U.S. Is Gradually Trending Lower, Says Scotiabank

The share of Canadian exports bound for the United States is gradually trending lower, averaging 76% in 2024 and 72% last year, and coming in at 66% in February 2026, said Scotiabank.This has been driven by a decline in exports to the United States and increasing exports to other regions, mainly Europe, noted the bank in a note published last week.In February, exports to the U.S. rose 4.4% month over month but were down 10.4% compared with 2024. Exports to other countries rose 10.5% after a weak January and were up 42.4% from 2024, though much of this has been driven by elevated overseas exports of gold. On the import side, the share of Canadian imports from the U.S. was down slightly in February to 59% from 62% in 2024.Canada continues to benefit from a relatively low effective tariff rate on total exports. 3.1% is Scotiabank's latest estimate, based on pre-tariff trade flows, of the increase in tariffs since end 2024, thanks to most of Canada's trade with the U.S. continuing on a tariff-free basis under CUSMA. This is down from 4.5% in February due to the country-specific U.S. IEEPA tariffs being replaced by a 10% global tariff.The reported average actual duties paid on U.S. goods imports from Canada was slightly above 3% for the third month in a row, down from close to 4% six months ago. This could tick lower in March, given the tariff changes in late February. The proportion of Canadian goods imported into the U.S. facing tariffs has settled around 10%, pointed out the bank.The U.S. trade deficit is back close to its pre-tariff level. U.S. trade saw significant volatility early in 2025 in response to the tariffs, before stabilizing later in the year. In February, U.S. exports rose 4.2% and imports increased 4.3%, resulting in an increase in the trade deficit to US$57 billion, down from around US$70 billion in 2024.The U.S. import tariffs continue to create inflationary pressures in that country, with the latest estimate of the cumulative impact of the tariffs on the U.S. consumer price index reaching nearly a full percentage point and clouding the outlook for U.S. interest rate cuts, especially given recent increases in oil prices.Tariffs and uncertainty continue to be elevated and dynamic, according to Scotiabank. Although the replacement of the U.S. IEEPA tariffs with the temporary global tariff of 10% was positive for Canada, the vast majority of Canadian trade has been compliant and, as such, exempt from those tariffs. The sectoral tariffs are by far the most impactful for Canada, and haven't been affected by the recent changes.

German DAX Surges 5% After Middle East Ceasefire Deal

German equities joined a global market rally, with the DAX climbing 5.06% by the end of Wednesday trade, on news of a two-week ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran.The deal, which was secured just two hours before US President Donald Trump's ultimatum against Iran, centers on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz under Iranian military oversight and a halt to US and Israeli strikes as negotiations proceed in Pakistan. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said in a statement that they are in "close coordination" with the US and other partners to negotiate a "lasting end to the war."Oil prices dropped on hopes that the flow of oil and gas through the vital waterway will resume. Danske Bank noted that the news sent Brent crude tumbling toward $92 per barrel of oil, though this price relief depends entirely on the reopening of the strait."For prices to stabilise at lower levels, oil and gas flows through the strait must pick up again, which remains uncertain. The deal looks fragile, particularly as Iran is allowed to charge fees on ships passing through," Danske Bank said. "The war is now in its sixth week, and scepticism remains about whether the ceasefire will hold, as many view it as a trust-building exercise. Significant uncertainties persist, and the oil market and broader markets are likely to stay volatile as they monitor activity from the Gulf."Back in Europe, the contraction in the euro area's construction segment extended for the 47th straight month in March 2026, amid the sharpest downturn in new business since October 2025, due to energy and material inflation linked to the Middle East conflict. According to S&P Global, the S&P Global Eurozone Construction PMI Total Activity Index was down to 44.6 from 46 a month ago.On the flip side, Germany's construction slump eased in March, with the downward trend in output slowing after the previous month was characterized by "particularly severe wintry conditions" that triggered "widespread disruption." Based on the latest S&P Global survey, the Construction PMI Total Activity rose to 48 from 43.7 in February, marking the highest reading in 2026 so far.In corporate news, Heidelberg Materials (HEI.F) gained 9.57%, as BofA Global Research sees positive earnings momentum for the building materials company even as analysts project that "bad weather" in Europe and the US would affect its first-quarter results."Q1 typically accounts for c12-13% of FY EBITDA and c7-8% of FY EBIT for Heidelberg Materials due to seasonality, implying that a strong/weak first quarter typically has limited implications for FY estimates," BofA wrote. "Despite a weak start to the year, we remain confident that Heidelberg Materials can deliver on its FY-26 EBIT guidance of cEUR3.58bn at the mid-point (BofA forecast EUR3.7bn), reflecting normalised volume trends from March and a positive price/costs outlook. This will include energy surcharges implemented now to offset the recent spike in fuel and logistic costs."

UK Shares Surge on US-Iran Ceasefire; Shell Falls

London's FTSE 100 climbed 2.51% on Wednesday's close as British Prime Minister Keir Starmer welcomed the two-week ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran ahead of US President Donald Trump's deadline for a deal.Starmer is traveling to the Gulf on Wednesday to meet with leaders and discuss his government's commitment to de-escalation of the war, as well as efforts to uphold the truce. The ceasefire, mediated by Pakistan, includes the "complete, immediate, and safe opening" of the Strait of Hormuz, Trump said on the Truth Social platform.In economic news, Britain's average house prices fell 0.5% month over month in March, after a 0.3% increase in February, according to data from Halifax. The consensus estimate for the month was a 0.1% gain."The recent slowdown in the housing market reflects the wide uncertainty regarding the conflict in the Middle East. Concerns about higher energy prices have pushed up inflation expectations, which in turn led to a rise in mortgage rates, reducing confidence that interest rates will be cut this year and dampening the initial momentum in the market seen at the start of the year," according to Halifax Head of Mortgages Amanda Bryden."The two-week ceasefire announced this morning gives us hope that the war in Iran will be short-lived, but for now it is causing the UK housing market to slow and some of the UK housebuilders to stumble," RBC Capital Markets said regarding the Halifax data. "Share prices are likely to be up today, but peace in Iran will not alone fix the problems facing the UK housing market."In corporate news, Shell (SHEL.L) dropped 4.68% to become one of the blue-chip index's worst performers after guiding first-quarter adjusted loss in the range of $800 million to $1 billion. The oil and gas giant previously forecast an adjusted loss between $400 million and $600 million."Outside of the Qatari outage, which was known, operational guidance today looks resilient relative to our expectations. From a headline perspective, Shell is expected to report a monster working capital build of $10-15bn, highlighting how unprecedented the current commodity price environment is. Given its strong balance sheet, we expect investors to look through this," RBC said in another note.GSK (GSK.L), up 1.38%, secured approval from China's National Medical Products Administration for Exdensur, or depemokimab, as an add-on treatment with intranasal corticosteroids for chronic rhinosinusitis with nasal polyps in adult patients.

Swiss Market Index Joins European Rally Amid US-Iran Ceasefire Deal

The Swiss Market Index was up 2.53% on Wednesday's close, joining a regional rally in Europe, as investors sighed in relief after the US and Iran reached a conditional two-week ceasefire agreement.In a social media post on Truth Social, President Donald Trump said the US received a "workable" 10-point proposal from Iran that could serve as a basis for negotiations to potentially end the war. The Iranian government said in an official release that it will cease its defensive operations and allow safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz if attacks against the country are halted.Leaders from around the globe expressed support for the ceasefire and diplomatic efforts in achieving an end to the conflict in the Middle East."We strongly encourage quick progress towards a substantive negotiated settlement. This will be crucial to protect the civilian population of Iran and ensure security in the region. It can avert a severe global energy crisis," the leaders of the UK, Canada, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, Spain, the European Commission and the European Council said in a joint statement. "We call upon all sides to implement the ceasefire, including in Lebanon. Our Governments will contribute to ensuring freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz."As of press time, London's Financial Times reported that Iran threatened to withdraw from the deal due to Israel's continued attacks in Lebanon.Back home and on the labor market front, Switzerland's unemployment rate in March edged down to 3.1% from 3.2% in the previous month, government data showed. The number of unemployed people declined by 4,821 month over month to 146,255 in March.Over to corporates, UBS Group (UBSG.SW) and fellow Swiss banks Banque Cantonale Vaudoise (BCVN.SW), Raiffeisen, PostFinance, Sygnum and Zürcher Kantonalbank are working together with Swiss Stablecoin AG for a new joint initiative to test potential use cases for a local currency stablecoin in Switzerland. A sandbox for a Swiss franc stablecoin is set to be launched in 2026 as part of the initiative, which is aimed at supporting the development of a local digital money ecosystem, among other objectives. UBS shares gained 3.98% at closing, while those of Banque Cantonale Vaudoise were down 0.77%.Meanwhile, Zurich Insurance Group (ZURN.SW) shareholders approved a dividend of 30 francs per share for full-year 2025 at its annual general meeting, to be paid out April 14, 2026. The Swiss insurer paid 28 francs per share a year ago. The stock closed the session 0.74% higher.

UBS Updates Its Canada Macroeconomic Forecasts Amid High Oil Prices

UBS said it is taking on board the latest moves in oil prices into its Canadian inflation projections with the latest path implied by oil futures, with Brent reaching US$118 per barrel in the May contract before settling at around US$78/barrel by the end of the year and US$73/barrel by end 2027.With this, the bank now expects annual headline inflation of 2.9% this year and 2.4% in 2027. UBS estimates a strong 1.3% non-seasonally adjusted rise in headline inflation in March, carrying the year-over-year rate one percentage point higher to 2.8% in March.UBS predicts headline inflation will peak at 3.4% year over year in April before moderating from there.In the bank's growth projections, it expects a stronger pace of exports, but marked down business fixed investment and consumption.Overall, the bank's annual projections are little changed, with annual growth of 1.6% this year and 1.7% in 2027.The latest monthly gross domestic product data suggests an "okay" start to the year, with monthly GDP up 0.1% in January, a little better than the flat print in the flash estimate, and the flash estimate for February was a 0.2% month-over-month rise.After a strong broad-based decline in employment in February, UBS forecasts a "mild" 16,000 rise in employment in March, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 6.7% in the employment data to be published on Friday.